814
FXUS63 KAPX 140711
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
311 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY TODAY. LOW RHS WILL LEAD TO SNEAKY
FIRE GROWTH CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- TURNING WINDIER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
POCKETS OF STEADIER RAIN BUILDING TONIGHT AND CLEARING THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.
- LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AMID SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SPORADIC SHOWER CHANCES MAY BLOSSOM ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
PATTERN / FORECAST SYNOPSIS:
QUICK JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... 500MB RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES
OVERHEAD AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING
WITH IT A DEEP SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST RETURN FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOCUS OF THIS MOISTURE FOCUSES ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FIRST SET TO BE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT TO PERHAPS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION, PENDING CONVECTIVE INGREDIENT COOPERATION. THE WAVE IS
SET TO FLATTEN OUT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN QUEBEC BY MIDWEEK. RESULT WILL BE THE FRONT
PASSING THROUGH, BUT LARGELY STALLING OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH AS ZONAL
FLOW RESULTS IN A PARALLEL FLOW SETUP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THIS FRONTAL ZONE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SPLIT
BAG OF DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH AND BETTER SHOWER POTENTIAL SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DETAILS:
THE PICTURE IS BIG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS INCOMING SYSTEM... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH AMPLE DRY AIR TO WORK WITH (BLATANTLY
VISIBLE ON THE 14/00Z APX SOUNDING). THIS WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL BE
VITAL TO FORECAST EVOLUTION ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. SKIES START QUITE CLEAR TODAY, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
PLAINS SHORTWAVE, ANTICIPATING RESULTANT RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT'S GOING TO BE AT
THE SURFACE, WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOW ALOFT BEFORE
IT DOES AT THE SURFACE, AS HIGH CLOUD BUILDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SPEAKING OF THAT LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR... EFFICIENT
MIXING PROCESSES WILL ALLOW FOR A DIP IN DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BACKDOOR SHOT AT SOME ELEVATED FIRE
PARAMETERS, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING, STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY / EVENING, WHICH SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY FIRE
CONCERNS.
DEEPER MOISTURE DOES START TO MANIFEST TONIGHT, WITH CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING BEST MOISTURE POOLING THROUGH THE NIGHT FAVORING
A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UPPER, WITH LESSER SATURATION FAVORED THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES.
RESULT WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER INTO
THE TIP OF THE MITT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GENERAL 0.50-1.00"+ ACROSS EASTERN UPPER, WITH SPOTS IN
THE TIP OF THE MITT LIKELY SEEING TOTALS THAT LAND A TENTH OR TWO ON
EITHER SIDE OF 0.50". REST OF NORTHERN LOWER LIKELY HOLDS 0.25" OR
LESS (PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO 0.50"). FIRMLY ANTICIPATING THE RAIN
SHIELD TO MORE OR LESS BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A WET START TO THE DAY FOR MOST, IF NOT, ALL OF THE REGION.
GOING THROUGH TUESDAY, LIFT GENERALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE REGION,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE EROSION OF THE RAIN SHIELD WITH TIME, AND
THUS LESSENING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT ITSELF
PASSES THROUGH. AS SUCH, COULD BE QUITE THE GAP BETWEEN BETTER RAINS
TO THE NORTH AND LESSER RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH... AND TO ADD INSULT
TO INJURY FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR RAIN, THE FRONT LOOKS TO FLARE UP
AGAIN LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT CURRENT SIGNALS FROM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONTEND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A GRADUALLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, DRUMMING UP STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ECHOING PREVIOUS FORECASTER'S
THOUGHTS, GENERAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD MUTE MUCH OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET'S MIXING ABILITIES VIA AN INVERSION JUST OFF THE DECK.
MAKE NO MISTAKE, IT WILL TURN QUITE BREEZY, BUT FOR NOW, LOOKS LIKE
MOST PLACES SEE 25-35MPH WIND GUSTS AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY, PERHAPS PUSHING 40MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES.
WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY OWING TO ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD, MUCH LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MANIFEST, WITH POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL. FRONT SET TO REMAIN STALLED DOWNSTATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY SEE WAVES PASS
THROUGH THIS FRONTAL ZONE... SOME OF WHICH MAY HOLD JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXTENT TO THE NORTH TO DRUM UP SOME SHOWER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY AND AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FROM THESE WAVES SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION, THUS LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL APPRECIABLE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE REGION, AND LIKELY RESULTING IN AMPLE DRY TIME.
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S SEEM LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING WAY
AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, LONGER TERM GUIDANCE IS GRUMBLING ABOUT
ANOTHER POTENT WAVE EJECTION THAT COULD SEND A DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME
BACK INTO THE REGION, AND THUS MAY RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK... BUT IT'S STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT
FOR SPECIFICS AT THIS JUNCTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR. RELATIVELY QUIET THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WOULD NOT
TOTALLY PRECLUDE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT (MBL/CIU), BUT MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATER MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS
INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY HEADING
INTO THE EVENING. SOME LLWS MIGHT ENTER THE PICTURE TOWARD THE
VERY TAIL END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT A BETTER CHANCE IS JUST
BEYOND.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ016-018-020-024-025-030-031-036-042-088-
095-096-098-099.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ345.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ346>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ347>349.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page