327
FXUS63 KAPX 161758
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
158 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN INCREASING
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT, AND LESS RAIN COVERAGE FAR NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: IMPRESSIVE 600DM 500MB HEAT DOME IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON -- SOME +3 TO 4 SD
ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. MEANWHILE, FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST U.S.,
BECOMING WEAKLY TROUGHED THE FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA YOU GO.
OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE IS CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A WAVE WITH TROPICAL PACIFIC ORIGINS MAKES
HEADWAY AROUND THE BASE OF THAT WAVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
LATTER WAVE WILL BECOME THE FOCUS THIS WEEKEND AS IT EJECTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY -- PACIFIC
MOISTURE APLENTY WHILE DOING SO. ALL OF THIS TO FOLLOW A WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM PERTURBATION THAT'S CURRENTLY TREKKING ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MT/WY, EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECAST DETAILS: WEAK WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO TREK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. UPTICK IN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES -- PRIMARILY AFTER 08Z TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS
ACROSS WI, WITH LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOCALLY, SO CURRENT TRENDS
STILL POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND (BOTH AREAL AND
INTENSITY) AS THESE SHOWERS MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA.
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE COMMON. THIS HOLDS FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE LOW-MID
70S, COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LARGELY SPANNING THE 60S.
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, MORE POTENT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH INITIAL UPSTREAM
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPROACHING. CERTAINLY SIGNALS FOR
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHERE THAT BEST
POTENTIAL LIES. LOTS OF THIS UNCERTAINTY HINGING ON A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT'LL BE DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK, AND HOW FAR
NORTH (IF AT ALL) THAT CAN BE DRAWN. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS IN A
SOLUTION THAT BRINGS A SWATH OF POTENTIALLY EFFICIENT RAIN INTO
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI (PRIMARILY M-72 AND SOUTH) FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN CHANCES THEREAFTER
FOCUSED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN IN AND
SOUTHERN MI. THIS LARGELY FITS WITH WPC'S LATEST LONG RANGE QPF
FORECAST AND DAY 4-5 EROS THAT FOCUS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL RAIN TO OUR SOUTH. CERTAINLY A TIMEFRAME
THAT'LL BE WORTH MONITORING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
CI AND DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND TIP OF THE MITT
THIS AFTERNOON...THE LATTER WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE IN THE DAY.
EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE/LOWERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND KMBL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK BUT
LOOKS AT WORST TO BE SOME HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITIES AS CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5K FEET.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...JPB
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