907
FXUS63 KAPX 180611
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
211 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT PROBABILITIES/
EVOLUTION ARE IN QUESTION (SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE
PRECIPITATION AT ALL).
- SEASONABLY COOL MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS / FORECAST:
CORRIDOR OF QUICK FLOW ALOFT GUIDED BY TWO DOMINANT FEATURES SPANNING
THE CONUS... LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND A STOUT THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. RESULT IS A RIDGE AXIS THAT NOSES ITS
NORTHERN ZENITH INTO THE DAKOTAS, WITH A CORRIDOR OF WNW TO NW FLOW STRETCHING
THROUGH THE CORN BELT AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH KANSAS CITY, SPANNING
EAST FROM THERE THROUGH PEORIA, IL THROUGH AKRON, OH. THIS FRONT WILL ACT
AS THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE AS A SERIES OF DEEP PACIFIC
TROPICAL WAVES ZIP OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS.
RETURN FLOW WILL LEAT TO A NORTHWARD DRAW OF THIS FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND,
BUT STOUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND RESULTANT DRY NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE A BARRIER OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN REGARD TO THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE ADVANCING MUCH, IF ANY, INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL
BE FORCED BACK SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING TO START NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS:
LIKELY DRY TODAY AS MOISTURE INTRUSION IS HELD OFF BY AFOREMENTIONED DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW FROM CANADA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT, BUT THAT IS ABOUT
THE ONLY INDICATION THAT A ROBUST RAINFALL EVENT IS ABOUT TO APPROACH THE
AREA. KEY WORD HERE BEING - APPROACH.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED A PESSIMISTIC TREND REGARDING THIS INTRUDING RAIN.
CONVECTION TO REALLY BLOSSOM ACROSS MINNESOTA AND IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH RESULTANT RAIN PLUME RIDING WNW TO NW FLOW REGIME ALONG
THE INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD DISPLACED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS
TO KEEP MOST OF, IF NOT, ALL OF THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND NOW... WITH
PERHAPS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MANISTEE AND THAT IS ABOUT IT. BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES... BEING ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AT BEST ON THE WARMEST DAYS NEXT WEEK... WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE OUR FIRST TRUE STRETCH OF FALL-LIKE DAYS ON THE DOCKET. THE CHILLIEST
OF THE DAYS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS THE CORE OF A COOLER AIRMASS BUILDS OVERHEAD,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A HANDFUL OF SPOTS FAILING TO GET MUCH PAST 55 DEGREES FOR
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS IN MID-LATE SEPTEMBER
ARE 66 TO 71 DEGREES, THE BIG THING TO NOTE... IS THAT WHILE WE EMBARK ON THIS
COOLER STRETCH OF WEATHER, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE RATHER MINIMAL, SO AT THIS
JUNCTURE, ANTICIPATION IS THAT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL HOLD ON THE DRY SIDE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
PATCHY FG/BR DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN, AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOME WITH TIME TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY FG/BR WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE AS DIURNAL MIXING ENSUES, MAKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK/CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...DJC
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