658
FXUS63 KAPX 182356
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
756 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES, FOCUSED PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
- FEELS LIKE FALL, A STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A RELATIVELY FAST WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM SITS ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL FEATURE
WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH PRECIPITATION ENCOUNTERING
AN INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN,
THANKS TO A DRY, EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. CHILLY TEMPERATURES
ON THE WAY, AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REINFORCES LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHWARD FOCUS TO THE WEEKEND RAIN
CHANCES, AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORRIDOR STRETCHES FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THERE ARE STILL SOME
QUESTION MARKS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH
MODELS TRYING TO BRING AT LEAST LIGHTER RAIN TOWARD THE M-72 (OR
EVEN M-32) CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WE WILL SEE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
EDGING FURTHER NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THERE
WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT (THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR INTRUSION) BETWEEN THE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
THE POTENTIAL SPOTTIER, MUCH LIGHTER RAIN FURTHER NORTH. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE M-55 WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN
HEAVIER RAINS TO THE SOUTH AND MUCH LIGHTER RAIN TO THE NORTH.
A STRETCH OF COOLER TEMPERATURES UPCOMING INTO NEXT WEEK, AS
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HELPS TO SUPPRESS UPPER HEIGHTS
WHILE ALSO DRAGGING COOLER H8 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT CHANCES OF AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
WITH COOL, DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS MID MICHIGAN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, INCLUDING MBL AT TIMES. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS BELOW 5SM ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. MOISTENING OF THE
LOW- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH TIME WILL SUPPORT LOWERING CIGS
OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO MVFR AT MBL SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT OTHER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THROUGH THE ISSUANCE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 KTS SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...DJC
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