663
FXUS63 KAPX 190939
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
539 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN'S LOWER
PENISULA THIS AFTERNOON.
-HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT ZONAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPSTREAM WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SUPPORTING LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE NORTHWOODS.
THE MIDLEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPS A QUASI-SPLIT FLOW SET UP THIS MONDAY
WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN FLOW EXTENDING UP TO NORTHERN CANADA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BENIGN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS BROAD MIDLEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH DEVELOPS THROUGH FRIDAY, SUPPORTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ENTER THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND
AS A WEAK CYCLONE DRAGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE 45TH PARALLEL,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY AND SUNDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN
THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL CENTRALIZE THE
STRONGEST FORCING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WHERE WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS WILL
LIKELY OBSERVE SEVERAL INCHES, BUT MUCH LESS IS EXPECTED OVER OUR
CWA. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS MEASURABLE RAINFALL SOUTH
OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF A GENERAL QUARTER TO
HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM. A FEW SHOWERS
WITH PATCHY FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL BURN OFF
QUICKLY AS UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OUTLOOK...BROAD MIDLEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
NORTH BUILDS THIS MONDAY TO RETURN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH H8 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST
DAYS AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS. ONLY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AN AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ATTEMPT TO RETURN LOW END CHANCES OF RAINFALL, BUT THE LONG RANGE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERALL AS THIS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
KEEPS ANY DISTURBANCES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD AS UPSTREAM LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CIGS SPREADING
INTO KMBL BY LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THESE LOWER
CIGS EVENTUALLY REACHING KTVC BY THIS EVENING. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
TO REACH KPLN AND KAPN AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT, BUT BASES SHOULD
STILL REMAIN VFR. JUST HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AT KCIU. CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY AT KMBL AND KTVC
(ALTHOUGH BETTER RAINS MAY REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH). LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS TODAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF THOSE
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
PATCHY MIST/FOG TONIGHT AS WELL.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB
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