116
FXUS63 KAPX 211704
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
104 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
-SEASONABLY NORMAL FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES BUILD THIS WEEK WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND FROST/FREEZE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW MIDLEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TODAY WITH SHALLOW RIDGING OVER THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER AND DISHEVELED TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CONUS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL RIDGING
REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE AND SUPPORT
RAIN-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. POST
FRONTAL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN TODAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S EAST OF I-75 WHILE SOUTHWEST
PARTS OF THE CWA REMAIN WATER DUE TO SLIGHT DOWNSLOPING PROCESSES.
FOCUS REMAINS ON TONIGHT AS CLEARING CLOUD COVER AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES WILL LEAD TO CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER WILL VERY LIKELY SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MORNING WHILE INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER REMAINS IN THE UPPER 30S.
PATCHY FROST IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT WILL REMAIN MORE
LOCALIZED COMPARED TO EASTERN UPPER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE SEPTEMBER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NO
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SUPPORTING SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW AS THE MIDLEVEL WAVE
APPEARS TO BE LIFTING/DISSIPATING WITH TIME CAUSING THE BOUNDARY
TO LIKELY FALL APART BEFORE REACHING MICHIGAN COMBINED WITH THE
SYSTEM REMAINING VERY MOISTURE STARVED. LOW POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE LONG TERM
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
VFR LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR MOST, BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR/NEAR-MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR APN AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT AT TVC/MBL. WINDS
REMAIN ENE 5-15KTS GUSTING 15-20KTS THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
(CIU COULD TURN MORE N/NE THRU 0Z) AND SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5-10KTS
OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD BE LIGHT/VRB AT CIU OVERNIGHT. NOT IMPOSSIBLE
PLN/TVC/MBL TRIES TO TURN MORE N/NNW THIS AFTERNOON (LAKE BREEZE)
BUT NOT LIKELY. THINK THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS AROUND TUESDAY TO
END TAF PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ018-
024-030-036-042.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-
349.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...FEF
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