547
FXUS63 KAPX 212343
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
743 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER, WITH
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.
- DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH A
GRADUAL SLIGHT WARMUP INTO THE LOW 70S INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT TIMES AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, CONTINUING HIGH SWIM RISKS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE THROUGH TUESDAY.
TONIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ALLOW THE COLDER
AIRMASS TO TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S. AS A RESULT, FROST
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TYPICAL COLDER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
WHERE LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN UPPER FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WHILE FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER HAS MORE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING LONGER... HOWEVER, IF CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS DECREASE MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER, THEN
SOME ADDITIONAL FROST HEADLINES WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY LATE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RETURN FLOW ALLOWS MILDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION, WITH LOCATIONS LOOKING TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS AND PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE
WAVE WEAKENING. AS SUCH, THINKING NORTHERN MICHIGAN SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS BORDERING ON MVFR MAY LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, BUT FEW/SCT COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WITH BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUD ABOVE. PATCHY
FG/BR CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE
LIKELY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FG/BR DEVELOPMENT MATERIALIZING AT
TAF SITES AND THEREFORE IS NOT EXPLICITLY INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE ENE TUESDAY
MORNING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ018-024-
030-036-042.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ086-087-095-096.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ348-349.
DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC
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