228
FNUS73 KAPX 290640
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR WELCOME LAKE SOUTH FUEL BREAK...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0400 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE... CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989)732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AROUND THE BURN SITE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY MID-
MORNING. AN UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TOWARD SUNSET AND BEYOND.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ANTICIPATED AT THE SITE TODAY, BUT MAY TAKE ON A
SUBTLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT LATE IN THE DAY. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH FAVORED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 40% RANGE, BUT LOW
PROBABILITIES DO EXIST FOR RHS TO FALL TO 35-40%. MIXING HEIGHTS IN
EXCESS OF 3.5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON, AND LIKELY OVER 4 KFT FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES RETURN AT THE BURN SITE TONIGHT,
MAINLY AFTER 2 AM.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (17.0).
TIME (EDT) 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........18 19
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0
TEMP............47 46
RH..............96 100
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6
VRATE KT-FT.....17 22
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
2 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4200 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (9.0-375.0).
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........19 19 19 19 18 18 26 34 41 40 39 38
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............45 45 47 52 59 66 69 71 73 74 74 73
RH..............100 100 93 86 75 65 59 53 48 46 46 49
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 3 5 5 5 9 9 9 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.5 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.1 4.2 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W SW S S S S SW S SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 3 3 2 6 7 8 9 9 10 10
VRATE KT-FT.....22 17 13 9 10 76 168 258 339 325 375 327
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-800 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (29.0-281.0).
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........45 53 61 65 69 73 77 80 84 87 89 92
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............71 68 65 62 60 58 58 58 58 58 57 57
RH..............53 61 68 75 81 87 87 83 83 83 86 86
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9
VRATE KT-FT.....281 60 33 30 35 36 29 35 35 36 36 35
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (36.0-272.0).
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........92 91 91 90 90 89 90 90 90 89 87 85
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............56 56 56 57 59 61 62 63 64 66 67 68
RH..............90 93 93 93 93 90 87 84 78 75 75 73
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 15 15 15 17 17 17 17 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 9 12 14 15 18 18 16 14 14 16
VRATE KT-FT.....36 41 39 79 141 177 258 272 243 226 240 237
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
FORECASTER...MJG
REQUESTED BY...JOHN NORTON-JENSEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622703.0/APX
.DELDT 09/29/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JNORTONJENSEN@USDA.GOV
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