274
FNUS73 KAPX 051636
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR AUSABLE 17 RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1236 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE... CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989)732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
PREVAILING NNW WINDS EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE DAY, SUSTAINED 12-
17MPH BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF TOWARD 10MPH OR LESS THRU THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS GENERALLY 10-20MPH BUT COULD BE AS HIGH AS
25MPH, ESP EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT LAKE
BREEZE FROM LAKE HURON, BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP, WOULD EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. MIXING HEIGHTS 5000-7000FT WITH
AFTERNOON RHS LIKELY DROPPING TO 35-40 PERCENT. SOME DOWNSLOPING
POSSIBLE, BUT IF WINDS TURN MORE NW/WNW THAN NNW, DOWNSLOPING WOULD
BE ENHANCED AND RHS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25-30 PERCENT.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 22 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700-6700 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (969.0).
TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........22 23 19 22 15
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 56 57 58 57
RH..............49 45 41 40 42
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.4 6.7 6.4 6.1 5.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 22 21 20
VRATE KT-FT.....1213127112101107969
VENTRATE CAT....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 3
TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1800 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...EXCELLENT (748.0) DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR
(8.0-177.0).
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........2 10 16 14 12 2 19 27 29 19 25 29
WEATHER COV..... PTY ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST FST FST FST
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 53 45 41 40 38 37 36 36 35 34 35
RH..............47 50 70 82 85 92 92 92 92 96 96 92
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 7 7 7 5 5 5 2 2 2
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.0 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW N N N N N N NW NW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 12 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 2
VRATE KT-FT.....748 177 59 30 26 25 21 20 16 13 13 8
VENTRATE CAT....EXL FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 13 TO
21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-2700 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (12.0-481.0).
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........37 36 34 46 49 42 42 44 41 40 41 37
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST FST
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............36 36 37 41 46 50 54 57 59 62 63 64
RH..............89 85 85 82 73 68 59 53 51 48 48 48
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 6 6 6 9 9 9 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 13 13 13 17 17 17 21 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW S SW S S S S S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 7 7 9 13 15 16 17 18 20 21
VRATE KT-FT.....12 16 22 27 60 145 241 307 359 397 439 481
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD GD
FORECASTER...FEF
REQUESTED BY...JOHN NORTON-JENSEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623096.0/APX
.DELDT 10/05/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOHN.NORTONJENSEN@USDA.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page