832
FNUS73 KAPX 060634
FWSAPX
SPOT FORECAST FOR AUSABLE 17 RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
234 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0400 EDT ON OCTOBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE... CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (989)732-9306, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH ON AVERAGE
AFTER 2 PM. DENSE FOREST (BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE
SITE LOCATION) MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL OBSERVED EYE LEVEL WINDS TO
SOME DEGREE. MIXING HEIGHTS RISE TO AROUND 2 TO 2.5 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MIN HUMIDITY DROPPING AROUND OR BELOW 50 PERCENT
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A LESS THAN
10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH A
SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT AROUND MIDDAY (NOT
EXPECTED THOUGH). BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT AT TIMES, AND
AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH MUCH DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (12.0).
TIME (EDT) 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........25 29
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0
TEMP............34 35
RH..............96 92
20 FT WIND DIR..N N
20 FT WIND SPD..0 0
20 FT WIND GUST.2 2
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3
VRATE KT-FT.....12 13
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15
TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-2900 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (16.0-440.0) INCREASING TO GOOD
(522.0) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........37 36 34 46 49 42 42 44 41 40 41 37
WEATHER COV.....ARS ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE....FST FST FST
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............36 36 37 41 46 50 54 57 59 62 63 64
RH..............89 85 85 82 73 68 59 53 51 48 48 48
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 6 6 6 9 9 9 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 13 13 13 17 17 17 21 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 7 7 8 12 14 14 15 17 20 21
VRATE KT-FT.....16 21 24 22 43 120 179 226 270 340 440 522
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR GD GD GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2100 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (61.0-337.0).
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........29 41 59 73 67 73 65 52 27 37 50 33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 61 59 57 55 55 55 56 56 56 54 54
RH..............56 58 64 69 72 72 72 69 69 69 77 80
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.23 23 23 25 25 25 23 23 23 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 15 16 17 18 17 20 17 17 15 15 15
VRATE KT-FT.....337 177 147 89 84 75 120 99 91 61 69 70
VENTRATE CAT....GD FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF THUNDER...2 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6400 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (48.0-408.0) INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (914.0).
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........31 34 17 52 37 22 19 16 13 10 8 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............54 52 52 54 59 63 66 68 69 69 69 68
RH..............80 86 89 90 80 72 63 55 49 45 44 44
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 15 15 15 20 20 20 21 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.1 4.3 5.1 6.3 6.4 5.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 12 10 13 14 15 15 16 20 20 18
VRATE KT-FT.....56 48 52 94 172 280 408 561 720 10781082914
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD EXL EXL EXL EXL
FORECASTER...JLD
REQUESTED BY...JOHN NORTON-JENSEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623096.1/APX
.DELDT 10/06/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOHN.NORTONJENSEN@USDA.GOV
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