470
FXUS63 KAPX 061721
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS (RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN UP?) TODAY
ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
- ON/OFF RAIN SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND (70S POSSIBLE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
CURRENTLY, THERE IS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WITH ENERGY AND SUBSEQUENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
MANITOBA. LOW LEVEL JET IS SITUATED ACROSS WISCONSIN, WITH
GENERALLY A LACK OF MEANINGFUL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS
WILL ALL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
MOISTURE QUALITY IS SO POOR THOUGH THAT THIS INITIAL BATCH OF
SHOWERS WILL BE MINOR AND NOT A BIG DEAL IN THE SLIGHTEST.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WELL TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO, WITH SUBSEQUENT WEAK WARM FRONT ZIPPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UP. CONSEQUENTLY, A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
SOME LOW END ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THUS, CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, IF A RELATIVELY STRONGER
STORM WERE TO DEVELOP, PEA SIZED HAIL WOULD NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, PERHAPS SOME LIGHTNING BUT THIS WILL BE A QUICK
MOVING FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. THUS, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
WELL. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME TODAY, PEAKING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THUS, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. PEAK WIND GUSTS 25
TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHER ACROSS THE LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS, LITTLE LOWER NEAR SAGINAW
BAY. WINDS STEADILY DECREASE LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
REGARDLESS, WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS
WELL. WORTH FINE TUNING ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH THE
NEXT CYCLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH. THESE SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MI, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN UP.
WARM LAKES AND THE COOLER TEMPS MAY AID/PROMOTE SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS. THE DEEPEST PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
COLD POOL ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SMALL ELEVATED INSTABILITY) SO SOME LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL THOUGH, THE MID TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK CAN BE DESCRIBED AS ON AND OFF
SHOWER POTENTIAL, FAVORING EASTERN UPPER AND ADJACENT NORTHERN
LOWER, WITH MORE DRY THAN WET PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN THE RANGE OF SEASONABLE, A LITTLE ABOVE WEDNESDAY.
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AS
WELL.
THIS WEEKEND:
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THUS, DESPITE BREEZY CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW DURING THIS TIME, BUT WORTH
MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, THOUGH LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ESP FOR CIU
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS
TSRA BETWEEN 21-0Z. LESSER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY PLN. PRIMARY CONCERN IS WIND...40-50KT LLJ OVERHEAD
AROUND 0-6Z TONIGHT; UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL TRANSFER DOWNWARD
AND CURRENTLY HAVE SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS WITH LLWS AROUND 1500-2000FT
FROM SW/WSW. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 6-9Z AND SUSTAINED WINDS
DROP FROM 10-15KTS TO 5-10KTS AND SHIFT FROM SSW TO W BETWEEN 10-13Z
AND EVENTUALLY TO NW AFTER 13-15Z.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...FEF
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