044
FXUS63 KAPX 070548
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
148 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING (ESP
TIP OF THE MITT AND E UP) WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND (70S POSSIBLE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
FUN LITTLE SETUP POTENTIALLY FOR TODAY, DEFINITELY HAS THAT COOL
SEASON SMELL TO IT. STOUT UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO TO OUR NORTH (AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM), WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY, HEIGHTS
LOWER, TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE, AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MI. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, PUTTING THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF UPPER SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY (COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES POSSIBLE) ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE MITT VICINITY AND NORTHWARD. THUS, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION,
SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
THE STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ~30+ KTS ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
ASSUMING THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
REMAIN ROBUST AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NWS GAYLORD COUNTY WARNING
AREA. SMALL HAIL IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE
WIND POTENTIAL IS SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON.
ADDITIONALLY, LOOKS LIKE SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS THREW IN
WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL, WILL TRY AND FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN DEPRESSED AND ANY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED DEPRESSED HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, ALBEIT THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE WILL BE EJECTING EAST AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE
RETREATING TO THE NORTH OF N MI. STILL, LAPSE RATES MAY BE STEEP
ENOUGH FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, AGAIN FOCUSING ACROSS THE E UP AND ADJACENT
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NOT AS THERMODYNAMICALLY INCLINED AS
THE WEDNESDAY THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THUS, DESPITE ANY BRIEF LOW CONFIDENCE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, BUT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES NORTHEAST LATER ON
SUNDAY (MOST GUIDANCE AND ENS KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE EAST OF N
MI). EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ACTIVE WEATHER WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANY
LINGERING GUSTINESS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND LLWS DIMINISHES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, WINDS TURN OUT OF THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BECOMING BREEZY
AT TIMES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXIST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING, PRIMARILY AT CIU/PLN/APN.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MJG
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