687
FXUS63 KAPX 071641
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1241 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ESP TIP
OF THE MITT AND E UP.
- MILD/WARM TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND (70S POSSIBLE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
FUN LITTLE SETUP POTENTIALLY FOR TODAY, DEFINITELY HAS THAT COOL
SEASON SMELL TO IT. STOUT UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO TO OUR NORTH (AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM), WITH IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY, HEIGHTS
LOWER, TEMPERATURES ALOFT DECREASE, AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MI. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, PUTTING THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF UPPER SUPPORT AND
INSTABILITY (COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES POSSIBLE) ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE MITT VICINITY AND NORTHWARD. THUS, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION,
SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING WEST WINDS ALOFT
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ASSUMING THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN ROBUST AS THEY MOVE
INTO THE NWS GAYLORD COUNTY WARNING AREA. SMALL HAIL IS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE WIND POTENTIAL IS SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ADDITIONALLY, LOOKS LIKE SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS
THREW IN WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE BIG LAKES, WILL TRY AND
FOLLOW SUIT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN
DEPRESSED AND ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED DEPRESSED HEIGHTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, ALBEIT THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE WILL BE EJECTING EAST AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE
RETREATING TO THE NORTH OF N MI. STILL, LAPSE RATES MAY BE STEEP
ENOUGH FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, AGAIN FOCUSING ACROSS THE E UP AND ADJACENT
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER. NOT AS THERMODYNAMICALLY INCLINED AS
THE WEDNESDAY THOUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THUS, DESPITE ANY BRIEF LOW CONFIDENCE SHOWERY
ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, BUT MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES NORTHEAST LATER ON
SUNDAY (MOST GUIDANCE AND ENS KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE EAST OF N
MI). EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A COOL DOWN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ACTIVE WEATHER WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE; LOWEST CLOUDS AROUND 4-6KFT THRU AFTERNOON
BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO TRACK IN BETWEEN 20-01Z, ESP FOR CIU AND PLN BUT
THINK THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR TVC, APN AND PERHAPS MBL AS WELL;
NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SECOND ROUND AROUND 3-6Z. SUPPOSE THERE IS A NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR FOG, BUT THINK WINDS MAY REMAIN TOO STRONG,
PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE MI. EXPECT WINDS TO FLIP BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN W/SW THRU AFTERNOON, TURNING MORE WNW TO NW AFTER 21-3Z WITH
A FRONT AND MAY DROP TO 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP AGAIN
AFTER 9-12Z TOWARD 13-15KTS; GUSTS 25-30KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...FEF
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