966
FXUS63 KAPX 071731
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
131 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN HAZARD IS GUSTY
WINDS
- FALL LIKE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
OFF AND OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
- CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR NEAR RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING WEAK (MSL GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE PENISULA OF 1 TO 2 MB). BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. ABOVE
OUR HEADS, A QUASI-PNA PATTERN EXISTS IN THE UPPER LEVELS, PLACING
NORTHERN MI IN NORTHWEST FLOW. A JET MAX WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGHING, PLACING NORTHERN MI IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO SURGE TO
THE SOUTH, COLDER TEMPS ALOFT REACHING NORTHERN MI AND WILL RESULT
IN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE STARTING THIS EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE PACIFIC, AND HAVE
TRACKED THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN CAN BEFORE REACHING MI. ENOUGH WILL
EXIST FOR LIGHT SHOWERS (PWATS OF 0.6-0.7"), HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS
FROM ANY SHOWERS THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN LIGHT (A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT A TIME).
AN INTIAL SURGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEEN EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. THE MAIN
POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINS WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 TO 50 MPH AT MAX, SINCE STRONGER WINDS EXIST ALOFT AND DCAPE
VALUES OF 500+ J/KG ARE SEEN. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS DROPPING TO 3 TO 4 KFT TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN U.P). GOOD TO EXCELLENT SHEAR WILL EXIST DURING THIS
TIME (ESPECIALLY 0-6KM WHICH COULD BE AS HIGH AS 50KTS AT TIMES
FOR CERTAIN PLACES). WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SHEAR COULD
ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO BREIFLY STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT IS SHEARED
OFF. A FEW CAMS DO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER AND NEAR THE TIP
OF THE MITT (PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE STRAITS) THIS EVENING.
THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A STORM OR TWO PRODUCING STRONGER
NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR UPDRAFTS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
HAIL GROWTH.
OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR MOST OF NORTHERN MI
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE HIGH 30S AND LOW 40S. THURSDAY,
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS NEAR NE
LOWER COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOWER CHANCES FOR HAZARDS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND RESULT IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MILD FALL
TEMPERATURES.
STARTING SATURDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE CENTRAL-
EASTERN CONUS. WWA WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM NEAR RECORDS FOR SATURDAY, REACHING INTO THE MID TO HIGH 70S
(POSSIBLY LOW 80S). WARM AND DRY WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY,
HOWEVER THE PLUME OF OF MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS COULD LEAD TO CLOUD
COVER WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE STATE, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES AWAY FROM NORTHERN MI.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST TOWARDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES LINGERING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE; LOWEST CLOUDS AROUND 4-6KFT THRU AFTERNOON
BUT COULD DROP TO MVFR WITHIN SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO TRACK IN BETWEEN 20-01Z, ESP FOR CIU AND PLN BUT
THINK THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR TVC, APN AND PERHAPS MBL AS WELL;
NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SECOND ROUND AROUND 3-6Z. SUPPOSE THERE IS A NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR FOG, BUT THINK WINDS MAY REMAIN TOO STRONG,
PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE MI. EXPECT WINDS TO FLIP BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN W/SW THRU AFTERNOON, TURNING MORE WNW TO NW AFTER 21-3Z WITH
A FRONT AND MAY DROP TO 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT BUT PICK BACK UP AGAIN
AFTER 9-12Z TOWARD 13-15KTS; GUSTS 25-30KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ345>347.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
341-342.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321.
DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...FEF
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