151
FXUS63 KAPX 090659
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
259 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVERALL QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS. NEAR
RECORD WARMTH BUILDS THIS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
-SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC RAINFALL CHANCES
RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGHING CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. AS A RESULT OF THE EFFICIENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
RECORD BREAKING LEVELS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST PARTS OF
THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE FOR THE RUST BELT AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE BEING
DRAGGED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MOST RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA, BUT AREAS AROUND SAGINAW BAY COULD
OBSERVE SOME FRAGMENTS OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES REMAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TWO WAVES ORIGINATING FROM ALBERTA AND THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE MIDWEST. DETAILS REMAIN
BLURRY ON AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME, BUT MODERATE
TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL TO THE CWA AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 50S AROUND THE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: ONGOING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BEGIN
TO BURN OFF IN THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR NORTHERN LOWER WHILE EASTERN UPPER REMAINS IN
THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF M-28. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM
AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES AND PUSHES LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE TEENS AT 850MB. WITH EFFICIENT MIXING TO THE SURFACE THIS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD WELL INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA. AFOREMENTIONED BREEZY SE FLOW WILL CREATE
SLIGHT DOWNLOPING PROCESSES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS
OF NORTHERN LOWER, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OUTLOOK: LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SMALL
WAVE DEVELOPING LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. BETWEEN WEAK FORCING AND DEEP
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE REMAINING CUT OFF, QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN AROUND A
GENERAL TENTH INCH OR LESS. MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
FOCUSED ON THURSDAY'S POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. DEEPER TROUGHING
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ORGANIZATION OF THIS LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS
ORGANIZED WITH A DEEP CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND AN IDEAL
NORTHEASTERN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST
DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
MAINLY VFR. SOME FOG ALREADY AT PLN, AND CIU IS LIKELY TO SEE
SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT. ANY FOG BURNS OFF FRIDAY MORNING. A
LITTLE CU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...JZ
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