736
FXUS63 KAPX 110656
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
256 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND MONDAY.
-RAINFALL RETURNS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS:
LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO REMAIN SETTLED OVER THE
NORTHWOODS WITH CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY TODAY TIED TO THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. THIS
RIDGING WILL SUPPORT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
FOR OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY WHILE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPS
OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. AT THE SAME
TIME, A DISHEVELED WAVE DEVELOPS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND PUSHES MOISTURE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY OBSERVING
QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TUESDAY'S FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A NORTHERLY CP AIR MASS INFLUENCE. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR MOST AREAS ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO/MANITOBA. ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEYOND THE MIDWEEK
REMAINS AROUND THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AS LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BUT
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST DETAILS:
TODAY AND MONDAY: BEAUTIFUL FALL CONDITIONS WITH SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE WITH
TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTH SUPPORTS DRY WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
FOR MOST AREAS. SOME ALTO AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SAME CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE APPROACHING
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. NEVERTHELESS, WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL PERSIST BEFORE FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES
RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OUTLOOK: WELL ADVERTISED RAINFALL WILL
COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER BEFORE SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER AND
WARMER SATURATED PROFILES ATTACHED TO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS QPF TOTALS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS, BUT SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD
OBSERVE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH AS THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE NORTHERN LOWER. THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAINS
RATHER QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY
HIGHS TURNING BACK TO NORMAL (50S). LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST AS LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A CLIPPER DEVELOPING
OVER ALBERTA AND DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AROUND THE FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY, SO THE THREAT OF ANY DIFFERENT P-TYPE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
REMAINS LOW AS WE HEAD INTO MID OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY WHILE REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH,
GUSTING INTO THE LOW TEENS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL AS AND CS SPREAD FROM
THE SOUTH ACROSS KMBL, KTVC, KAPN, AND KPLN TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. SOME LOW IFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR
KCIU LATE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE OF IT BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAF
SITE REMAINS LOW.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LHZ345>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...SJC
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