895
FXUS63 KAPX 112322
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
722 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MONDAY
- PASSING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THE
RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK
- POTENTIAL FOR EVEN COLDER AIR TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL CYCLONE "ISAIAS" WELL TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...ROTATING UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH OF THESE REMNANTS, CENTERING ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PERFECT RECIPE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS...WITH OVERHEAD DEEP
LAYER RETURN FLOW BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND SLOW SOUTHEAST
DROPPING COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. OVERHEAD
AIRMASS ALREADY A WARM ONE, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS AGAIN PROPELLED TEMPERATURES WELL
UP INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED
LOCATION OR TWO HIT 80 YET THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT RECORD SETTING,
THESE READINGS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF OCTOBER.
OVERHEAD RIDGING SLOWLY GETS KNOCKED DOWN HEADING INTO THIS WEEK AS
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SUPPRESSED. THIS WILL DRIVE
THAT UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST, SLOWLY CROSSING OUR AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
CHANCES AND THE RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR A
MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK,
PERHAPS BRINGING A SHOT OF EVEN COOLER AIR ALONG WITH IT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOWER EVOLUTION WITH THAT
PASSING FRONT TO KICK OFF THIS WORK WEEK.
DETAILS:
MILD AND DRY WEATHER TONIGHT SETS THE STAGE FOR MORE UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER ON MONDAY. THAT WEAK FRONT DOES BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER DURING THE MORNING...LIKELY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR AN
EXCELLENT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THERMAL
PROGS EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S FOR MOST SOUTH OF
THE BIG BRIDGE, WITH READINGS PUSHING 80 EASILY ATTAINABLE...
ESPECIALLY DOWN NEAR SAGINAW BAY. AGAIN, SHORT OF RECORDS, BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. POST-FRONTAL EAST WINDS, MORE
CLOUDS, AND EVEN THE THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL KEEP THOSE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER A TOUCH COOLER, BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS UP
INTO THE 60S.
WEATHER TURNS A BIT MORE ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY, TO INCLUDE EVEN SOME REMNANTS OF CURRENT TROPICAL
SYSTEM ROTATING UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. PASSING WEAK LOW ALONG
THIS FRONT AND SOME ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL HELP
WORK OVER THIS INCREASING MOISTURE, DRIVING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. CURRENT JUXTAPOSITION OF BETTER DEEP LAYER
FORCING AND MOISTURE SUGGEST MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS NORTH OF M-32 IN NORTHERN LOWER LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH. JUST ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO PERHAPS SUPPORT A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, BUT DEFINITELY NOTHING TOO INTENSE
EXPECTED. NOT LOOKING AT ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT RAINS, WITH MOST AREAS
LIKELY RECEIVING WELL UNDER A HALF AN INCH BY LATER TUESDAY MORNING.
OF COURSE, ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
EMBEDDED DEEPER CONVECTION OCCURS.
FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR OUR AREA BY LATER TUESDAY, TAKING ANY SHOWER
THREAT ALONG WITH IT. WHILE NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS THE PAST FEW DAYS,
STILL LOOKING AT RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
USHER IN A CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIRMASS BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL LOOKING AT NORTHERN
STREAM AMPLIFICATION TO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK, DRIVING DEEPENING
TROUGHING INTO OR PERHAPS JUST EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW AGGRESSIVE THIS
TROUGH DEEPENING WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...RAISING QUESTIONS
ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR WE CAN TAP. IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SCENARIOS ARE REALIZED, COULD EASILY SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE, WITH PERHAPS EVEN SOME
LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION TO THOSE SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN TO REBOUND SOME BY SUNDAY AS CORE
OF COLDEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ROTATE OFF TO THE EAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LOW-END MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT CIU ON MONDAY. LOWER CLOUDS
OVER FAR NORTHERN LK HURON WILL MOVE WEST WITH DEVELOPING
EASTERLY WINDS. CIGS WILL BE HIGHER FURTHER SOUTH (PLN).
OTHERWISE VFR.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page