848
FXUS63 KAPX 160015
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
815 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: WELL-ADVERTISED RAINY AND INCREASINGLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TAP OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH CURRENT FOCUS
ON TWO INBOUND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE FIRST CURRENTLY SITTING
NEAR THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST,
WHILE THE SECOND WAVE CONTINUES TO TREK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PARENT WAVES OF THESE FEATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
PROCESS OF PHASING UPSTREAM WITH THE END RESULT EXPECTED TO BE ONE
LARGER AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BEFORE RACING QUICKLY EAST TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
RENEWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKING TO RENEW DRIER CONDITIONS AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING REVOLVES
AROUND INCOMING WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES DOWNSTREAM ON FRIDAY, CONTINUED WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG NNW WINDS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY
AS A RESULT, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING AN INCREASED LAKE COMPONENT
(AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY), ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PWS REMAIN PROGGED AS HIGH AS 1-1.5" ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS -- SOME +1 TO 3 SD ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR
MID-OCTOBER. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY STEADY MODERATE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY BENEFICIAL FOR THOSE IN
EXPANDING DROUGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. FAVORED QPF AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON UP A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO --
LARGELY RANGING FROM 0.60 - 1.00". AS ONE WOULD EXPECT,
PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO INCREASED FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1.00"+,
UP TO 50-80% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MOST NOTABLY IN NNW FLOW
LAKE EFFECT AREA THAT SEE THE MOST NUMEROUS CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME VERY LOW (<15%) PROBS FOR
2"+ AMOUNTS STILL EVIDENT OVER THE SAME AREA.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY,
WHICH THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME, A FEW INLAND/HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS COULD MIX IN OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW GIVEN
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED AS LOW AS -6 TO -8C.
THINK THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS WILL BE DECREASING
MOISTURE DEPTH WITH THE LOSS OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ALMOST OUT OF THE DUE NORTH BY THIS POINT, WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TYPICALLY COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS UP THE SPINE OF NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER. NONETHELESS, IT'S STILL
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT A FEW SPOTS COAT THE GROUND
IN THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOW.
WINDS FRIDAY BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
FREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25-35 MPH AREA-WIDE WITH THOSE
NEAREST THE COASTS HAVING THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO GUST 40+ MPH AT
TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND, DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY (LOW-MID 50S) MODERATING FOR SUNDAY (LOW-
MID 60S). THAT SAID, AND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN
CONTROL LOCALLY, LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO NORTH THROUGH CANADA
WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING THE
RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY - WEDNESDAY LARGELY IN THE 60S WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNING TOWARD THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
RA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS
OVER MOST TERMINALS THIS EVENING. RA/-RA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z. LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL BE AOB 6KTS THROUGH 07Z. A STRONGER
FROPA WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM 07 THRU 12Z AND TURN WINDS TO
NW/NNW. INTERMITTENT -SHRA WILL FORM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR KTVC/KMBL. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR AFTER 12Z AND
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
AFTER 14Z, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...ELD
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