258
FXUS63 KAPX 162255
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSED LOWER MI LAST
NIGHT IS NOW SITUATED WELL DOWNSTREAM IN FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC/JUST
NORTH OF UPSTATE NY. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SIGNIFICANTLY
THIS MORNING BETWEEN THAT DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
WEST -- THIS'LL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PARENT TROUGH
AXIS TO THE ONGOING LATE WEEK INCLEMENT WEATHER IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE WEEKEND. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, NORTHERN MI WILL LIE ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF ~1032MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/ONTARIO. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WILL BE THE RESULT ONCE AGAIN,
WITH RENEWED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TOWARD THE VERY TAIL END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH.
FORECAST DETAILS: STRONGER DYNAMICS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON,
LARGELY TAKING ANY SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH
IT. HOWEVER, STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTING INCREASED OVERLAKE
INSTABILITY ON THE SURROUNDING GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THIS EVENING (MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE
TYPICAL NNW FLOW LAKE BELTS). STILL A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT A FEW
WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN AFTER SUNSET, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
TYPICALLY COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN/ INTERIOR AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
LOWER MI -- THAT'S IF THESE AREAS CAN MATERIALIZE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS, SOMETHING THAT'S NOT FAVORED GIVEN NORTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE, WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS WELL WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-40 MPH AREA-WIDE
(HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKESHORES). WINDS RELAX MID-EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD, BUT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS NORTHERN MI BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WELL TO THE
NORTH. WINDS LARGELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH ON SATURDAY, AND 25-35+ MPH AT TIMES ON
SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW-MID 50S MODERATE ON
SUNDAY -- LARGELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH TO THE LOW-
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER.
THIS WARMING TREND FROM SUNDAY CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LARGELY IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE, BUT A FEW SPOTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 70S SEEM PRETTY LIKELY. NEXT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH. DOESN'T APPEAR THIS WILL BE A BIG RAIN MAKER, BUT MAY
PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO, NO GLARING SIGNALS FOR A
RETURN OF BELOW OR EVEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN (SNOWFLAKE?) SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING BUT SHOULD LARGELY TAPER OFF BY 4-6Z. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LINGER TOWARD CIU/APN OR TVC A BIT LONGER, AND POSSIBLE WE SEE
ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND 8-12Z BEFORE THINGS CLEAR
OUT. WINDS GENERALLY BACK TO NW AND W OVERNIGHT, DROPPING TO 5-12KTS
WITH GUSTS UNDER 20KTS, TURNING TO THE SW AFTER 12Z AND INCREASING
TO 10-15KTS AGAIN, GUSTING 20-30KTS BY AFTERNOON; COULD GO LIGHT AND
VRB OVERNIGHT AND IF SO, NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP BUT
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR TVC. CIGS WILL FLIRT WITH
MVFR THRU TONIGHT; VFR EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...FEF
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