405
FXUS63 KAPX 180323
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1123 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF RISING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED UPPER LEVELS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE IS DRAPED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, NORTHERN MI WILL LIE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
~1034MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/HUDSON
BAY. AS A RESULT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY IN THE
PROCESS OF RAMPING UP LOCALLY, WHICH WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND RESULT IN RENEWED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ALL THE WAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TOWARD
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH.
FORECAST DETAILS: PRIMARY FOCUS THIS WEEKEND REVOLVES AROUND A
RETURN OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AS NORTHERN MI BECOMES SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE
CROSSING WELL TO THE NORTH. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
PROCESS OF RAMPING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNON, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-30
MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, AND 25-40 MPH AT TIMES ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY'S UPPER END HIGHEST GUSTS LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAREST THE
LAKE MICHIGAN LAKESHORE OF NORTHWEST LOWER INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MACKINAC COUNTY.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NORTH AND LOW-MID 60S FOR NORTHERN LOWER.
MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK LARGELY IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE,
WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FOR LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. NEXT LOW-END RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER, LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THESE CHANCES ARE
DIMINISHING AS A WHOLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE TAPERED SOME,
BUT WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT. LLWS OUT OF THE SW IN PLACE AT 2KFT
THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY, ROUGHLY 40-45KTS. ANTICIPATION IS THAT
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY, GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AT TIMES BY LATE MORNING, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING. ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATING WINDS TO TAPER OFF
SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL USHER IN THE RETURN OF SOME MORE LLWS
OUT OF THE SW AT 2KFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD... 40-50KTS.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD
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