000
FXUS63 KAPX 200257
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1057 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: OMEGA BLOCK IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH UPPER LOW ANCHORS OFF OF BOTH COASTS
-- ONE OFF THE COAST OF NC/VA AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC
NW, SAGGING EAST OFF THE COAST OF CA BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY,
ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK
BEFORE RIDGING BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED BY MID-LATE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA SIMPLY TOO FAR REMOVED FROM HAVING MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
FORECAST DETAILS: A REMARKABLY TRANQUIL AND MILD STRETCH OF MID-LATE
OCTOBER ON TAP THIS WEEK. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A
GOOD 5-10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P. AND THROUGH THE 60S SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE. CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT A HANDFUL
OF LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN LOWER TAG 70 DEGREES AT TIMES THIS WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LARGELY SPANNING THE MID-30S TO MID-40S EACH NIGHT.
AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO, A DRY FORECAST IS FEATURED THIS WEEK AS WELL.
THAT SAID, NOT WITHOUT A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO MONITOR. THIS FIRST
ON WEDNESDAY AS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES. LATEST TRENDS FAVOR THIS TO BE DRY, BUT MAY BRING AN
UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER TO THE EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
SHOT FOR SOME RAIN MAYBE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
BLOCKING BREAKS DOWN, BUT CERTAINLY NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ONLY HICCUP IS SOME BR / FG
CONCERNS AT MBL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLEAR
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CALM WINDS FIRST TREND NE
LATE TONIGHT AT CIU, PLN, AND APN... TURNING ESE TO SE THROUGH
THE MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD
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