000
FXUS63 KAPX 200656
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
256 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES. AN OMEGA-ISH BLOCK, ANCHORED BY UPPER LOWS OFF
THE EAST COAST, AND MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST, WILL PROMOTE
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
THERE IS AN ACTUAL SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IN THE NEAR TERM, CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LAKES WED AFTERNOON. ITS EVENTUAL FATE IS BE
SHEARED OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED INTO
BROADER EAST COAST TROFFING.
THE SHORTWAVE WED AFTERNOON DOES PROVIDE A REASONABLE SHOT OF
DPVA FORCING IN NORTHERN AREAS, AND ARRIVES AT A FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY. BUT IT HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. IT WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKING TO SEE THE STRAITS AREA AND THE EASTERN UP SEE
A STRAY SHOWER WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BUT THAT CHANCES IS
10 PERCENT OR LESS, AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WE WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MOVING THRU WED,
ESPECIALLY AGAIN IN THE NORTH. BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE AS WARM
OR WARMER THAN TODAY, THANKS TO A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THAT FRONT WILL
TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE MOBILE THIS WEEKEND. BUT
THE UPPER TROF PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ONLY
SERVES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO TREND A BIT WARMER AGAIN MOVING THRU THE
WEEKEND. THE INCREASINGLY MOBILE/ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM
BECOMES HARDER TO GET A FIRM GRASP OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PLENTY OF
GUIDANCE BRINGS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION, AND
SHARPLY COLDER WX BY TUESDAY (EVEN WITH UNIMPRESSIVE POPS).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. ONLY HICCUP IS SOME BR / FG
CONCERNS AT MBL THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLEAR
TO MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CALM WINDS FIRST TREND NE
LATE TONIGHT AT CIU, PLN, AND APN... TURNING ESE TO SE THROUGH
THE MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...HAD
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