345
FXUS63 KAPX 210519
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
119 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.
- SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
PATTERN SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST:
SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
CALM, TO SUBTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND TEMPS
DROPPING TO SATURATION WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE NEAR SAGINAW BAY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOWER. LESSER CHANCE WEST OF 75, GENERALLY, BUT STILL PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY, ANOMALOUS UPPER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
GET BEAT DOWN SOME DUE TO A PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH
ACROSS ONTARIO. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR DEEP THAT FEATURE DIGS, IT
MAY TRY TO SCRAPE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS, POPS ARE <10% ACROSS THE E UP. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE, BECOMING A TOUCH COOLER ON
THURSDAY, DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT.
UPPER HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK INTO
THE 60S, MID 60S SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THE
UNSEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS, EXPECT PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER AS
WELL.
ENERGY ALOFT THAT INVADED THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA THIS
WEEK WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEKEND. CONSEQUENTLY, HEIGHTS GET SHUNTED EASTWARD AND SQUASHED
SOUTHWARD. WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ADVECT A
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND THUS,
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT IS
ASSUMING THE MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLDOWN AS WELL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ACTUAL
PUSH OF COOLEST AIR WITH THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE AREA. THUS, ALTHOUGH A COOLDOWN IS IN STORE ON MONDAY, THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE IS STILL VERY MUCH A QUESTION MARK AT THIS
TIME. STILL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS UPON US DURING THIS
TIME BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
MOST TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. KMBL IS
THE EXCEPTION WITH LIFR VIS AND OCCASIONAL CIGS DUE TO VERY
LOCALIZED FG/BR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13Z.
KAPN/KCIU WILL SEE CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR VIS DUE TO BR AND LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z. ALL TERMINALS BECOME VFR BY 13Z, WITH SW/W WINDS
AOB 10KTS. VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH 03Z. A WEAK FROPA WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND 18Z, SHIFTING WINDS TO W BUT REMAINING AOB
10KTS. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR
WIDESPREAD BR/FG.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...ELD
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