499
FXUS63 KAPX 211733
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
133 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT, LOCALLY DENSE.
- SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SHIFTS LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AND
/NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
ONTARIO. ANOTHER MOIST NIGHT WITH CALMING WINDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN (AS SEEN IN THE SREF AND HREF
VISIBILITY PROBS). A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING IS ANTICIPATED ON
THURSDAY, DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND THE
NORTHEAST SFC WIND SHIFT COMING OFF LAKE HURON.
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AND FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS, MID-UPPER 60S FOR SOME, WITH
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
BY SUNDAY, DEEP TROUGH/UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO AND VICINITY WILL
BEAT DOWN THE RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO SOME EXTENT,
ALLOWING FOR A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH EASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MI WITH TIME. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
UP. PROBS ARE GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM (10-60%) FOR 0.1" OF RAIN
DURING THIS TIME. COOLER, MORE SEASONABLY SO, AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY. THE DEGREE OF THE COOLDOWN IS A LITTLE IN QUESTION, WITH
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
OTHERS A FEW DEGREES BELOW. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, AFTER THAT. DURING THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD, THE THREAT FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE MINIMAL.
RUMBLINGS OF A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN LATER THIS MONTH INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER MAKING ITS ROUNDS. TOUGH TO SAY AT THIS POINT, BUT WHAT CAN
BE SAID IS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS ALASKA (-EPO) WHICH
GENERALLY CORRELATES (BUT NOT ALWAYS) TO COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY
SPILLING INTO THE LOWER 48 AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TO SAY, MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEANS SUGGEST WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH A FEW INDIVIDUAL OUTLIERS SHOWING A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN. LET'S WATCH THE TRENDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH
SKC-SCT250. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BR/FG TONIGHT (POTENTIAL FOR 1/4SM TO 1SM VSBYS),
WITH MOST TERMINALS AT PLAY AS THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
LOWER INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. BR/FG MAY LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY FOR SOME, DISSIPATING
AROUND THE 14 TO 15Z TIME FRAME.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JLD
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