558
FXUS63 KAPX 220704
AFDAPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
304 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
- MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
YET ANOTHER MAINLY QUIET EARLY MORNING IN THE NORTH WOODS. NO
PRECIP IN THE REGION. STRATUS AND FOG HAVE BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF OUR AREA (STRAITS AREA AND NORTH).
DRM/MCD/SJX/SLH ARE ALL SEEING OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG. THE SAME
IS PROBABLY OOZING INTO WESTERN MACKINAC CO, AND MQT DOES HAVE A
FOG ADVISORY BORDERING US THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL MORE HOURS FOR FOG TO FURTHER EXPAND, THOUGH TO THIS
POINT THAT EXPANSION HAS BEEN SLOW. STILL ON THE FENCE AS TO
WHETHER AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED HERE. FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BEFORE MORE FOG RETURNS LATER TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NE LOWER MI.
CURRENT WESTERN US 500MB TROF PROGRESSING INLAND, WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAVE BEHIND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE, DEEPENING AS
IT EVENTUALLY MOVES TOWARD HUDSON BAY BY EARLY SUNDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THESE FEATURES, RIDGING GETS PUMPED UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ARE THUS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THAT RIDGE STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED BEGINNING SAT
NIGHT, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS DO NOT LOWER HEIGHTS IN OUR AREA
AS MUCH AS THEY DID AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. INSTEAD THE RIDGE
ONLY GETS SUBSTANTIALLY FLATTENED, AT LEAST IN SOME GUIDANCE.
THE ECMWF IS A LESS TROFFY, LESS CHILLY SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEK
COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THE PASSING SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL STILL PROMOTE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER MI, CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING. STILL
COOLER FOR NEXT WEEK. 50S FOR HIGHS IN NORTHERN LOWER MI,
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN EASTERN UPPER, MONDAY AND BEYOND. SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE PROGGED EARLY TO MID
WEEK, AS OVERALL MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH KMBL SEEING TEMPORARY
BR/FG IMPACTS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10KTS WITH VRB DIRECTIONS
THROUGH 14Z. WIDESPREAD FG/BR TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND WILL LINGER
THROUGH 14Z. BEST CHANCES FOR LIFR IMPACTS REMAIN AT KMBL/KPLN,
WITH IFR CIGS AND VIS FAVORED FOR OTHER TERMINALS. ONCE CIGS
LIFT AND SCATTER AND VIS IMPROVES (AFTER 14Z) VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. BR IMPACTS WILL
CREEP BACK IN TO KMBL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...ELD
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