049
FXUS63 KARX 161153
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
553 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED QUITE MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
SOME (HREF PROBABILITY FOR < 0.10" 50 TO 100%). BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 1" (MON-TUE-EC/GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES 30-80%
PROBABILITY). TURNING COLDER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (0-20%
PROBABILITY OF SEEING A HIGH OF 45 OR WARMER EACH DAY).
BREEZY MONDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
OVERVIEW:
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAPPED OFF THE WEEK FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. THE 16.00Z MPX
SOUNDING WAS DRY BELOW 300MB WITH 0.36" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT). EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HEIGHTS
SHOWED A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY/OHIO/TENNESSEE/ SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.THEY LATEST RADAR MOSAIC HAD
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THROUGH UTAH INTO EASTERN IDAHO, MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN
CANADA. QUITE A BIT OF THIS WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
CONTINUED MILD THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME
(HREF PROBABILITY FOR < 0.10" 50 TO 100%). BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY:
THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE CLOSED AREA
OF 500MB LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. MEANWHILE, A
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM
120KTS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 150KTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. BROAD 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE ALSO
INCREASING IN THIS REGION. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1" BY 00Z
TONIGHT WITH A RIBBON OF MUCAPE 250 TO 500J/KG. THE CAMS SHOW SPOTTY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND 23-00Z IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE
WITH THE SYNOPTIC LIFT AND INCREASE IN VORTICITY ADVECTION/THETA-E
ADVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ALOFT AND COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER/AN ELEVATED STORM WITH THE
SATURATION ALOFT WITHIN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT
GENERALLY HAVE 5 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER. RAIN AMOUNTS
APPEAR LIGHT; MOSTLY A TRACE TO 0.10". AT THIS TIME, WE DO NOT
HAVE THE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA AS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WORK IN BEHIND THE
STORM SYSTEM. ALSO, UNSURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT
IN OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FOR SHOWERS TO
RE-DEVELOP WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH, SO HAVE LEFT DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WINDS
TODAY WITH THE 40 TO 50KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE RAP/HRRR WIND GUSTS SHOW SOME POCKETS OF
40KTS WINDS IN WIND FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FULL MIXING MAY NOT BE REALIZED. DID
BOOST WINDS SOME MOSTLY HAD GUSTS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 35KTS.
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
EXCEEDING 1" (EC/GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES 30-80% PROBABILITY).
TURNING COLDER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (0-20% PROBABILITY OF
SEEING A HIGH OF 45 OR WARMER EACH DAY):
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. THE STORMS SYSTEM
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IF FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST TRACKS EASTWARD AND MERGES WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM. GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE TAPPED AND THE NAEFS
AND EFI SHOW ANOMALOUS MOISTURE OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR PWAT. THE EFI HAS 60 TO 90 PERCENT OF THE
ENSEMBLE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOMALOUS PRECIPITATION
COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE SHIFT OF TAILS >1 OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE EC/GEFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES 30-80% FOR >= 1" OF RAINFALL. WE ARE IN
THE WARM SECTOR, HOWEVER THE MEAN SURFACE CAPE APPEARS LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, THE LATEST CSU PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE SOUTH OF THE AREA. COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THE
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS GREATER THAN 45 DEGREES WED-SATURDAY
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20%. BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM MONDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MID TO HIGH SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DRIVEN BY A SURFACE
LOW WITH SIMILAR MOTION LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING TODAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 30KTS EXPECTED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA (KRST) AND 25 KTS ELSEWHERE IN
WESTERN (KLSE) AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE, LOW PROBABILITY
(30%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS 17.00Z. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND LONGER FORECAST HOUR, HAVEN'T INCLUDED IN A FM
GROUP BUT HAVE ADDED WITHIN PROB30 GROUP AT KLSE WHERE SHOWERS
ARE MORE LIKELY; ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...JAR
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