895
FXUS63 KARX 162344
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
544 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TONIGHT.
- ANOMALOUS RAINFALL STILL LOOKING LIKELY FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE EXCESS OF 1 INCH.
- MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME, IT LOOKS TO BE A DUSTING AT MOST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
THE DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID- AND UPPER
40S ALONG THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT THIS EVENING ABOVE A COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT, THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK,
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WITH MID- LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE
TO TENTH OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CAUSE THE NAEFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. EFI CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITATION WHEN COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE SHIFT
OF TAILS 1 TO 2 OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND GEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES (40-80%) FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF RAINFALL FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH INSTABILITY
GETTING UP INTO OUR AREA, SO STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE CHANCES
LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND
THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW, THERE WILL BE AREAS OF SNOW, MIXED
PRECIPITATION, AND RAIN. THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE IT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
THE TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS; HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, ANY SNOW IN
OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A DUSTING IF ANY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AT ISSUANCE, MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD LARGELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CEILINGS AT OR AROUND 1500
FEET THROUGH 06Z, WHEN THESE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT WEST TO
EAST. OTHER CONCERN IN THE TAFS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AROUND CCY, BLOSSOMING
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN FINALLY SWEEPING EAST THROUGH WI. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS, VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, SO HAVE ONLY ADDED A VCSH
MENTION TO LSE AS A HEADS UP. USERS SHOULD ALSO BE AWARE THAT
THERE IS A SMALL (15%) CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THROUGH
06Z - WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND AMEND IF
PROBABILITY INCREASES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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