558
FXUS63 KARX 192349
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
549 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH RAPID BUT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES EXPECTED.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. CLOUDS WERE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
MAINLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LATEST 19.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW 925MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO MINUS 4 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 00Z THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FALL OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SOME OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY. GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH UP TO AN INCH.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, DRIER
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING THE SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW ON THURSDAY, PRIMARILY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE ARE FORECASTED TO BE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP TO NEAR 40F. WITH THE LOW STILL CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST
AREA, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA RESULTING
IN BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50F.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: UNSETTLED PATTERN
AFTER THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, 75% OF ALL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORS A BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE AS THE AREA ENDS UP
IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THE MOMENT THIS TROUGH IS NOT VERY
DEEP, HOWEVER IT DOES MEAN THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN
PLAY FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2.5KFT HANG AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD. AS THESE CLOUDS
CLEAR, VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. LOWER CEILINGS RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING,
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT AT KRST AND
20-25KT AT KLSE.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THEIR SPORADIC
NATURE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHEN A SNOW SHOWER WILL
IMPACT EITHER SITE SO HAVE LEFT SPECIFICS REGARDING VISIBILITIES
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL BE RAPIDLY
REDUCED TO 1/2SM OR LESS IN SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT THEM TO BEGIN
AROUND 14-15Z NEAR KRST AND 17-18Z NEAR KLSE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES, BUT
PAVEMENT WILL BECOME WET.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA/DTJ
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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