781
FXUS63 KARX 220821
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
221 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY & SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS THURSDAY
- SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
- LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN THANKSGIVING DAY (DAY 6) FORECAST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
TODAY:
AS THE LOW THAT DROVE RECENT DAYS SENSIBLE WEATHER CHURNS OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING ON GOES WATER VAPOR, AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE IS RETURNING FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
RESULTANT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND WARM AS FAR NORTH AS
BISMARCK, SD WITH 25TH PERCENTILE SURFACE/850MB DEWPOINTS AND
75TH PERCENTILE SURFACE/850MB/700MB TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO
SPC CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER, THIS RETURN FLOW ISN'T EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UNTIL
POTENTIALLY TONIGHT. INSTEAD WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CAA FROM THE DEPARTING CYCLONE TIED TO AN UPSTREAM POLAR LOW
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE WE ARE UNLIKELY TO BENEFIT FROM
DIURNAL HEATING AS CLOUDS STICK AROUND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES NEAR 1500 DUE TO CAA AND 75TH
PERCENTILE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT
INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN AND GREEN BAY, WI 22.00Z RAOBS.
THEREFORE, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST MIGHT SCORE WELL FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR
COMBATS THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR LINGERING LOCALLY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
RETURN FLOW DOES ABATE COLDEST TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AIDED BY THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK LOW. GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED WITH LONG TERM ENSEMBLES (EPS/GEFS/GEPS)
SPLITTING THE FORECAST AREA WITH 100% CONFIDENCE FOR THE 40
DEGREE ISOTHERM. AS THESE GLOBAL MODES TEND TO HAVE A COLD BIAS
AND CAN'T ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE PHENOMENA, HAVE STAYED WITH THE
NATIONAL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO
50 IN SELECT SPOTS FOR SUNDAY.
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM A NORTHERN PERTURBATION DROPPING INTO
A LONGWAVE TROUGH (GEFS/EPS) THAT EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES. INITIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED
TO A FILLING SURFACE LOW ZONALLY ADVECTING A BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY THAT BIFURCATES THE FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY AREA OF
DECREASED MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SKIRTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH (LREF 60-90%) LATER SUNDAY, DRIVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY. CLUSTERING
ANALYSES DISAGREE STRONGLY ON EXACT LOCATION OF THE DIVING AREA
OF DEPRESSED ISOHEIGHTS AND THEREFORE EXACT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. REGARDLESS, MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AS HIGHEST POTENTIAL REMAINS TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS TO
OUR SOUTH. WHILE MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME, FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
DIURNAL HEATING CONCURRENCE.
THANKSGIVING DAY & TRAVEL FORECAST:
ANOTHER TROUGH SAGS SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
UPSTREAM OF A POLAR JET STREAK, PLACING AN AREA OF AGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE JET
STREAK'S POLAR ENTRANCE REGION. ALL LONG TERM GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
(EPS/GEFS/CMC) SHOW THE MAIN LOW ADVECTING EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. EVEN SO, ONE
CLUSTER (30% OF MEMBERS) HAS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THANKSGIVING FROM MORE
THAN 0.5" PWATS, RESULTING IN 5" OF SNOWFALL OVER A LONGER
DURATION. TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL ANY DETAILS AS THIS IS ONLY 30% OF
SOLUTIONS AND OVERALL GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERN
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY RATHER THAN A NORTHERN
ROUTE THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT BASED ON TRAJECTORY DIFFERENCES, THERE IS A WIDESPREAD
DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME OF 10-15,
ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST THU NOV 21 2024
AS WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
NOTICED THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING A BIT WITH CIGS THIS
EVENING CREATING SOME CHALLENGE, BUT OVERALL MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL REMAIN SOME CHANCES
(~30-40%) FOR POCKETS OF LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW REMAINING IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA GENERALLY
TOWARDS DODGE/AUSTIN MN. STILL SOME SUGGESTION THAT CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, SO HAVE STAYED A BIT
PESSIMISTIC BUT EXPECT THAT TIMING OF ANY CEILING IMPROVEMENTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE FOLLOWING ISSUANCES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...EMS
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