094
FXUS61 KBGM 170250
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
950 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE WILL
GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
THEN SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
950 PM UPDATE...
LATEST 01Z HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, WHILE THE 00Z 3KM NAM STILL
SUGGESTS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER CNY AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. THUS FAR, THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER
WESTERN NY/PA IS STRUGGLING TO EXPAND EASTWARD, WITH OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE I-90 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS EVENING. BLENDED IN SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER, WHICH DECREASED IT SLIGHTLY...STILL
ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING.
635 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
HINTING AT A DEVELOPING STRATUS CLOUD DECK AND PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND
PORTIONS OF NE PA. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND AREAL
EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS IS MODERATE AT BEST; USED A BLEND OF THE
HRRR AND 18Z 3KM NAM TO CREATE THE SKY COVER FORECAST. ALSO TOOK
DOWN CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR MIDDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE REPLACED BY SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TONIGHT WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR THE
LONGEST, GETTING DOWN INTO THE 20S...BUT HOLDING IN THE LOW TO
MID-30S FOR THE TWIN TIERS, FINGER LAKES AND WYOMING VALLEY.
WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR LOW RH VALUES AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE CATSKILLS TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LUCKILY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH LIGHTER ON SUNDAY, ONLY 3-8 MPH.
330 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT
ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT, LEADING TO A DRY AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT 925 MB IS EXPECTED
TO ADVECT BACK IN OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION, SOUTHERN TIER
AND INTO PORTIONS OF NE PA. THIS CAN LEAD TO AT LEAST A BROKEN
LOWER STRATUS DECK THROUGH THIS AREA SIMILARLY TO WHAT WAS SEEN
THIS MORNING, SO CLOUD COVER WAS INCREASED FROM THE NBM EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. EAST OF I-81 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT, AND THE UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
RH, THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL IN CONTROL. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW, BUT WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE PA, ESPECIALLY PIKE
COUNTY, AND DRY FUELS, THE RISK FOR QUICKLY SPREADING BRUSH
FIRES REMAINS ELEVATED. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME TOMORROW NIGHT, A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACROSS CNY. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE, THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
210 PM UPDATE:
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
FINISH WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WILL BE
REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. AS A RESULT, SOME
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE A DRYING TREND
WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NY, BUT
ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE A RELATIVELY WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF FRONTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY
THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL (ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THEN BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
(MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY). THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, SO OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL NOT BE HIGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
210 PM UPDATE:
THE WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DISSIPATE AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH GREATER THAT WEDNESDAY REMAINS
PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
THE WEATHER THEN BECOMES QUITE UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING AND MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM SLOWLY
PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH WRAP-AROUND/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AT SOME
POINT DURING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE IN, ALTHOUGH WHEN EXACTLY
THAT WILL OCCUR IS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. POPS WERE
REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM FOR THIS REASON, ESPECIALLY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHEAST PA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID 40S TO NEAR 50) ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY WITH THE RAINFALL, BUT COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER MVFR CLOUD DECK LIKELY
TO MOVE INTO KELM,KBGM AND KITH OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD DECK MAY
REACH KAVP AS WELL BUT SHOULDN'T REACH KSYR OR KRME. CLOUDS
BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE THEN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR ENHANCED RISK OF
WILDFIRE SPREAD OVER THE CATSKILLS ON SUNDAY; THIS IS COLLABORATED
WITH WFO ALBANY AND NY DEC. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO FALL
BETWEEN 30-45% IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF DELAWARE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN SATURDAY;
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 3-8 MPH, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 12
MPH POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MWG
FIRE WEATHER...
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