480
FXUS61 KBGM 141956
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
250 PM UPDATE...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO SUNDAY. THIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE WITH HOW OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START PUSHING IN ALOFT ON
SUNDAY, DRY AND COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE
DUE TO THAT HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE STATIONED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL TRY OVERRUNNING THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME. THIS WILL ALLOW EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 IN SOME AREAS
ACROSS NE PA, INCLUDING THE POCONOS REGION TOMORROW EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE
ALOFT TRYING TO TAKE HOLD, BUT AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT, WET BULBING KEEPS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN, SO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW AT THE ONSET IN NE PA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WARMER AIR
WILL START WINNING OUT AND PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY
BECOME A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN MONDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR ALL OF OUR NE PA
ZONES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING IN SOME AREAS.
FURTHER NORTH IN NY, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT DUE TO HIGHER END AMOUNTS NEEDED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE UNCERTAINTY FOR FREEZING RAIN, IT WAS
DECIDED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. IF
FURTHER UPDATES SHOW A GREATER ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO CENTRAL NY, THEN ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME TIME TO SORT THIS OUT, AS ONSET TIME
FOR PRECIPITATION IN NY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
255 PM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON MONDAY AND SCOUR
OUT THE COLD AIR. AT THIS TIME, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
SET TO EXPIRE AT 15Z IN NE PA, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO JUST
PLAIN RAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK, AND SOMETIMES
COLD AIR CAN BE VERY STUBBORN AND HOLD ON LONGER THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVOLVE INTO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE
RECENTLY DEPARTED HIGH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND 30
SUNDAY EVENING WHEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. GIVEN THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
SOUNDINGS TO BECOME ISOTHERMAL AFTER A VERY BRIEF WINTRY MIX AT
THE ONSET. HOWEVER, ONCE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS SOME MID-
LEVEL DRYING SHOULD CHANGE TO PRECIPITATION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING MONDAY MORNING.
RECENT COLD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE A TOUCH
BELOW FREEZING HEADING INTO THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR. AS A
RESULT, ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD RESULT IN ICY SPOTS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE 30'S
MONDAY AS THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COMES TO AN END. OVERALL QPF IS
FAIRLY LOW UNDER 1/4TH OF AN INCH. SNOW RATIOS MAY END UP A BIT
UNDER 10:1 AS WELL GIVEN THE LOOK OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. MANY
LOCATIONS MAY ONLY SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOWFALL FROM
THIS EVENT WITH QUICK MELTING MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
945 AM UPDATE...
AFTER ASSESSING THE CURRENT TIMING OF FROPA ON TUESDAY, DECIDED
THAT HAVING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA IS UNLIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER, THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR
IN THE MORNING AND THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD.
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO REFLECT
THIS NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES TREND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND RAIN OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY OF COLD FROPA TUESDAY,
BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AND THUS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
10+ DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
SUGGESTING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT COMES ON IT'S HEALS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS . WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40'S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, A
SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES FALLING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF INTERVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. IF THE LOW
TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AN ANAFRONTAL PERIOD OF SNOW WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER, IF THE MAIN LOW TRACKS WEST OF OUR AREA WE
WOULD BE IN LINE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY. COLDER AIR ALSO SHOULD FILTER
IN AS WELL MAKING SNOW A LITTLE MORE FAVORED. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
SUITE FORMS A STRONGER LOW ON THE COAST DOWNWIND OF THE CLIPPER
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS GIVEN THE FAST
OVERALL FLOW AND CONTINUED + NAO.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN
MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BETTER CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK/MWG
LONG TERM...MPK/MWG
AVIATION...MPK
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