760
FXUS61 KBGM 150252
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
945 PM UPDATE...
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM WERE
THE MAIN FOCUS. CURRENT OBS WERE RUNNING LOWER THAN PROJECTED
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHILE AREAS AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
AND SYRACUSE METRO WERE RUNNING WARMER SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
ACCORDINGLY.
645 PM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AT THIS TIME, MAINLY TO LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT, SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE OVERALL
ON TEMPERATURES, AND BASED ON HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES FELL
THIS MORNING, LOWS WERE TAKEN DOWN A LITTLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS AND INTO ONEIDA COUNTY. LOCATIONS AROUND THE
IMMEDIATE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SYRACUSE METRO WERE RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROJECTED, SO THIS WILL BE ONE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT
WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE.
250 PM UPDATE...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO SUNDAY. THIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE WITH HOW OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START PUSHING IN ALOFT ON
SUNDAY, DRY AND COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE
DUE TO THAT HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE STATIONED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL TRY OVERRUNNING THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME. THIS WILL ALLOW EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 IN SOME AREAS
ACROSS NE PA, INCLUDING THE POCONOS REGION TOMORROW EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE
ALOFT TRYING TO TAKE HOLD, BUT AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT, WET BULBING KEEPS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN, SO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW AT THE ONSET IN NE PA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WARMER AIR
WILL START WINNING OUT AND PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY
BECOME A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN MONDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR ALL OF OUR NE PA
ZONES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING IN SOME AREAS.
FURTHER NORTH IN NY, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT DUE TO HIGHER END AMOUNTS NEEDED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE UNCERTAINTY FOR FREEZING RAIN, IT WAS
DECIDED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. IF
FURTHER UPDATES SHOW A GREATER ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO CENTRAL NY, THEN ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME TIME TO SORT THIS OUT, AS ONSET TIME
FOR PRECIPITATION IN NY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ON MONDAY AND SCOUR
OUT THE COLD AIR. AT THIS TIME, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
SET TO EXPIRE AT 15Z IN NE PA, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TURNING OVER TO JUST
PLAIN RAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK, AND SOMETIMES
COLD AIR CAN BE VERY STUBBORN AND HOLD ON LONGER THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SET OFF SHOWERS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
FALLING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH WESTERLY
FLOW SETTING UP. NAM MODEL HAS A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING
WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 C. THIS
WOULD SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION RANGES WARMER WITH MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWER SET UP. CURRENT FORECAST UPDATE USED A BLEND OF NAM AND
CONSMOS FOR TEMPERATURES. UNDER THIS SOLUTION ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
CUTTING OFF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AS DRY AIR SETTLES BACK IN.
RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY ADVECTS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. GFS
SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING NEAR -15 DEGREES C WITH THIS
AIR MASS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LAKE EFFECT SET UP ON
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
630 PM UPDATE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHED. CIGS BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 21-24Z SUNDAY AS LIGHT SNOW
QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST, IMPACTING ELM, ITH AND BGM BEFORE THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD (LIKELY STARTING BETWEEN 21-23Z SUNDAY). SYR, RME AND AVP
WILL SEE THE LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN A LITTLE SLOWER; PERHAPS NOT
FALLING TO MVFR UNTIL CLOSE TO, OR SLIGHTLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE BETWEEN 8-15 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BETTER CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...MPK/MJM
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