099
FXUS61 KBGM 151730
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1230 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES THIS LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
930 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK, HOWEVER, DID MAKE SOME MINOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE TO POP, P-TYPES, AND SNOWFALL TOTALS.
THE NAM AND NAMNEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND VISIBLE METSAT IMAGERY IS
PICKING UP THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
ACROSS THE MOHAWK AND CATSKILLS, DECIDED TO BRING IN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS A LITTLE EARLIER (2 HOURS). THERE COULD BE A
SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS THAT MAKES PRECIP START A LITTLE EARLY,
BUT THERE IS ALSO A VERY DRY LAYER FROM 2K FEET TO 10K FEET AND
FOR THE SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS WE WILL NEED TO CLOSE THAT GAP
MORE, BECAUSE THAT DEPTH WOULD BE TOO DRY FOR HYDROMETEORS TO
SURVIVE THAT LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY LAYER
STARTING TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING,
SO DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM 5
TO 8 PM TONIGHT A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD THAN WE PREVIOUSLY
HAD FORECAST, HENCE THE REASONING FOR BRINGING POPS UP IN THESE
AREAS TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW
THIS PROGRESSES THROUGH THE DAY AND MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON (UP OR DOWN) IF NECESSARY.
ALSO, AS OF RIGHT NOW, WE ARE NOT THINKING OF EXPANDING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO NY, BUT WE ARE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK
AT SULLIVAN COUNTY. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE THERMAL
PROFILES DON'T QUITE GET WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR FZRA AND THEY
STAY ALMOST ISOTHERMAL AROUND -1C TO +1C IN THAT WARMER LAYER.
SO WITH THIS UPDATE, THERE IS LESS ICE IN THE FORECAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW DUE TO THE DEPTH AND TEMPERATURE OF THAT WARM
LAYER POSSIBLY BEING TOO COLD FOR THE ICE CRYSTALS TO COMPLETELY
MELT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIX, EVENTUALLY CHANGING
TO RAIN TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON P-TYPES AND WHEN A CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.
345 AM UPDATE...
THE CURRENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH
AND EAST TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING IN PRECIPITATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT PEEKING IN BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED,
WITH CHANCES FOR PATCHY LIGHT ICING MAINLY FOR NE PA, BUT COULD
OCCUR BRIEFLY IN AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE CATSKILLS.
AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON, IT WILL START AS MAINLY SNOW BEFORE THAT WARM AIR
ALOFT PUSHES IN, TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION BRIEFLY DURING THE
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN AND
TAPERING OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NE
PA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW EXPECTED, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING IN SOME AREAS.
FURTHER NORTH IN NY, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT DUE TO HIGHER END AMOUNTS NEEDED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE UNCERTAINTY FOR FREEZING RAIN, IT WAS
DECIDED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. IF
FURTHER UPDATES SHOW A GREATER ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO CENTRAL NY, THEN ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, A 8
TO 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE, FOR MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. RAIN WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BUT INDICATIONS ARE
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1/4TH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR
SO. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STAY STEADY THE 40'S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TEMPERATURES STILL STAYING RATHER STEADY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF INTERVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE 20'S HIGHS SHOULD NUDGE INTO
THE 40'S WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOWERING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LONGER DURATION EVENT. STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
PRESENT FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO
THE 20'S AGAIN AS A RESULT.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AS
WELL, LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
HAS A CLOSE CALL WITH A MILLER B COASTAL. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY TRENDING AWAY FROM A EAST COAST STORM BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HAVE THE MONITOR THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION TO SEE
IF AND WHERE AND IF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OCCURS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
AFTER THAT, CEILINGS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. IFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SNOWFALL INTENSIFIES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW MORNING , BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EXACT TIMING CHANGEOVER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MPK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MPK
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