935
FXUS61 KBGM 190841
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
341 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANOTHER QUICK WEATHER
SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY. A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND
BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
930 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREK TO THE EAST AND INTENSITY
HAS FALLEN OFF. SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER
INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT, BUT THEY SHOULD
BE DISORGANIZED AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN
2IN EXPECTED. FOR THIS UPDATE, POPS WERE ADJUSTED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
TEMPS WERE ALSO DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
630 PM UPDATE...
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURRED QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE WET-BULBING OCCURRED PRETTY QUICKLY,
DROPPING TEMPS 4 OR 5 DEGREES IN AN HOUR DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTED AND SATURATED THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. BECAUSE OF THIS, SNOW FALL AMOUNTS HAD TO BE
ADJUSTED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO, AND AGAIN ON THIS UPDATE AS
WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THAT WOULD REQUIRE
HEADLINES, BUT AMOUNTS WERE UPPED 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF CNY, ESPECIALLY WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. FOR EXAMPLE, OUR OFFICE HAS RECEIVED 0.5 IN OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AS THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW OCCURRED QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND THE SNOW
BEGAN TO STICK TO THE GROUND ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. THE ORIGINAL
FORECAST HAD 0 IN OF SNOW FALLING. BASED ON THIS RESULT, IT
SEEMED PRUDENT TO ADD THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS CNY WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING THE
LONGEST, AS WELL AS ADDING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
255 PM UPDATE:
AS EXPECTED, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND THEREFORE THE RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW THERE. THIS COLDER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION BY THIS
EVENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH AND WILL BE EAST
OF OUR AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN MOST OF THE VALLEYS.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
EVENING AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -10C.
AS A RESULT, A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE WILL OCCUR AND SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES (GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES), BUT STILL LIMITED IMPACTS
OVERALL. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL NY ON THURSDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING IN BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL END THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY, WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
310 AM UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. BRINGING FALLING
850MB TEMPS AND NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW, THAT WILL KICK OFF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY AND
LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 INCH RANGE, THOUGH
WITH THE WIND DIRECTION LINING UP WITH THE FETCH OF SENECA AND
CAYUGA LAKES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THOSE LAKES.
FINALLY, THIS AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM UP MUCH ON SATURDAY AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH PERSISTENT
WINDS OUT OF THE NW, WE MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF ONEIDA, OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
325 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND TAKE AWAY ANY
MOISTURE THAT'S LEFT IN THE DGZ LAYER. THUS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW, WILL MAKE FOR
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THIS SET UP, WE DROPPED FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT HIGH CLOUDS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE, MAY LIMIT COOLING
SOME ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, SO DIDN'T LOWER TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
HAS A LONGER LASTING SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAVORABLE TRACK AT THIS TIME TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS, COMBINED ALREADY WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND WITH NO CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING, THE PROBABILITY FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY RETREAT LATER IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS DAY WITH 40S POSSIBLE BY
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY VACATED THE REGION WITH SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT AROUND SYR AND RME THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH MOST TERMINALS BECOMING VFR BY 0Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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