061
FXUS61 KBGM 070513
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1213 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STRONG
WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN
FOR FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1150 AM FORECAST...
A SMATTERING OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS
SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SW.
IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GRAINS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN THESE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A COUPLE MODERATE
SHOWERS OF SNOW GRAINS MOVED OVER THE OFFICE AN HOUR AGO.
TEMPS TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE STILL HAVE SOME ISOBAR
COMPRESSION FROM THE RIDGE BUTTING UP AGAINST THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
UP IN THE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NW, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
COOLER CANADIAN AIR OVERHEAD. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGE DO NOT STICK AROUND LONG
AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, TRACKING TO THE ENE. THIS PUTS
OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SW WINDS PUSHING WARM AIR
OVERHEAD. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH, ISOBARS ONCE AGAIN STACK UP
OVER THE AREA. STRONG SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START MID FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING UNDER AN INVERSION, THAT IF MIXED WELL ENOUGH, COULD
PUSH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS DEVELOPS
OVER THE NEXT MODEL CYCLE IN CASE IT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A BRIEF WIND HEADLINE. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH JET STREAM DYNAMICS HELPING TO DRIVE THE
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN FLATTENS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTH CENTRAL US AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE GET A BIG COLD AIR PUSH
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AS MOST OF THE COLDER AIR STAYS TO OUR
NORTH IN CANADA, BUT 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL ENOUGH TO ILLICIT
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
WNW FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
-2 TO -3C. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS GOING
UNTIL A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE MORNING AND
ENDS THE SHOWER CHANCES. WARM AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD, WITH MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE 50S AND THE WYOMING VALLEY IN THE LOW 60S.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN,
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER MI/IN THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. GUIDANCE IS STILL SORTING OUT THE PATH THE
LOW WILL TAKE ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A PATH
RIGHT OVER OUR CWA AND OTHERS PUTTING THE CENTER TO OUR NW. THE
AI ENSEMBLES PUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE SE VS
THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE EURO AND GFS. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS A SE POSITIONING BRINGS COLD AIR IN
FASTER AND DEVELOPS SNOW ACROSS THE AREA MUCH EARLIER THAN THE
SOLUTIONS THAT PUT THE CENTER OVERHEAD OR TO THE NW. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE NBM GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
MODELS, WHICH GOES WITH A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE IN-LINE WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE; RAIN SHOWERS TO START IN THE EVENING
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM W TO E, CHANGING
TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS VERY INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING SHORTWAVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL DEEPEN AND BRING THE FIRST REAL COLD SHOT TO THE EASTERN
US. TEMPS IN THE SE US WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN SOME SPOTS,
WHICH IS RARE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS HOW
THE TROUGH DEVELOPS, I.E., HOW QUICKLY DOES IT BECOME NEGATIVE
AND HOW STRONG DOES THE JET STREAM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH BECOME. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
SHOWS THE 500MB TROUGH GETTING NEUTRAL JUST WEST OF THE
APALACHIN MOUNTAINS WITH THE 250MB TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND AND
STILL POSITIVELY TILTED JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS SETUP DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
DELMARVA THAT RIDES NE UP THE COAST INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS LOW WOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND THE
COLD AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA, BRINGING US THE
FIRST WINTER NOR'EASTER OF THE YEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW EAST OF I-81. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN THAT
SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING NEUTRAL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
DEVELOP A QUICK HITTING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST THAT BRINGS
US SNOW EARLY MONDAY. THE REASON IT IS BEING MENTIONED NOW IS
THE EURO HAS TRENDED A SURFACE LOW WESTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF RUNS, WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY SHOW A COASTAL LOW AS WELL. WE
WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR MOVES INTO THE AREA MON AND TUES
WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE MID 30S. THE COLD AIR OVERHEAD
WILL KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT SHOULD STREAM OFF
LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO MON AND TUES AS FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY
WESTERLY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CNY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE SWERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST OF THE SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS WOULD WARM UP INTO THE 40S ON WED.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TILL AROUND 20-23Z FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY FORM AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME
SHOWERS AROUND BY EVENING. SOME SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER CEILINGS FALL INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY RAMP UP AFTER 15Z WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LLWS IS STILL LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 40 KNOTS OR SO OF SPEED LLWS OUTSIDE
HIGHER SURFACE WIND GUSTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN; COULD IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY...MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MVFR-VFR EXPECTED. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR-VFR EXPECTED. CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK/MWG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page