954
FXUS61 KBGM 071959
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVE WEATHER
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD OUTBREAK WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, WITH SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
10-20MPH ACROSS THE AREA, GUSTING AT 25-35MPH. THE HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.
A LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NY WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS ARE BEING
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN BY A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MID EVENING
WITH WRAP AROUND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY, KEEPING
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA. THE HIGH QUICKLY DISSIPATES AS A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN ON THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND THUS THE
PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT IS A LITTLE OFF. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND TUG HILL. HOW FAR SOUTH THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S UP NORTH TO MID 40S DOWN
SOUTH. A MIX OF RAIN SNOW AND SLEET MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK AND
TUG HILL AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY /
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,
TRACKING TO THE E AND N OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS KEEPS
OUR AREA PRIMARILY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW AND THUS RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MID EVENING, WITH ANY REMAINING WRAP
AROUND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS SWITCHING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX THEN
ALL SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED, UNORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ELEVATED SURFACES
COULD SEE THE FIRST ACCUMULATIONS OF THE YEAR, WITH A TRACE TO A
HALF INCH POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH
THE COLD FRONT FULLY THROUGH ON MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST
DAYTIME TEMPS OF THE YEAR WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 30S
EXPECTED, WITH VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITHIN
THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE VERY COLD AIR, WITH MONDAY NIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO PEE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME BETTER
ALIGNED TO ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO. WITH FORECASTED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
WESTERLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE -7 TO
-9C RANGE, THE TUG HILL COULD SEE A BAND DEVELOP OFF ONTARIO
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CNY COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVE OVER THE AREA OFF LAKE ERIE.
GUIDANCE AGREEMENT BECOMES LESS CLEAR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A WHILE, WHICH
WOULD PUSH SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OVERALL FLOW WHICH WOULD BRING NW
FLOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND PUSH SNOW SHOWERS INTO CNY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON
WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS SO CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THE SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW AS GUIDANCE AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS STILL
REMAINS TOO VARIED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z FOR ALL
TERMINALS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 20Z, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
REMAIN VFR. MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE CEILINGS THEN MOVE IN LATER
THIS EVENING AND DESPITE RAIN SHOWERS MOSTLY TAPERING OFF, THESE
CEILINGS LIKELY REMAIN MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD (AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY) FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AT KAVP, WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY THE MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (GUSTS OF
25-30KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES), BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
THIS EVENING; ROUGHLY FROM 23Z-04Z OR SO.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN; COULD IMPROVE LATER IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG
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