132
FXUS61 KBGM 081912
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY TONIGHT, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY ARE IN
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT INTO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS RAIN MOVES INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY GET DOWN TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS LIGHT SNOW THERE. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE, BUT THE
CHANCE FOR THIS IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS MODELED SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
INDICATIVE OF SNOW OR PERHAPS A FEW SLEET PELLETS MIXING IN.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WILL BE LIGHT;
MAINLY AROUND A HALF INCH, PERHAPS UP TO ONE INCH. IF CONFIDENCE
IN SEEING FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN INCREASES, A SHORT-FUSED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW
SINCE IT APPEARS MOST OF THE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LOCATED NORTH
AND EAST OF NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
AFTER AN INITIAL RELATIVE LULL/DRY SLOT SUNDAY MORNING, RAIN
WILL FILL BACK IN AREA-WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, BUT THE CHANCE FOR THIS IS
LOW. WITH A WARMER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AS A
RESULT, ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM AROUND -4C MONDAY MORNING TO AROUND -10C
BY MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, MAKING IT
FEEL MORE LIKE MID-DECEMBER RATHER THAN EARLY-MID NOVEMBER. THE
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY, PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT A FEW TENTHS TO PERHAPS LOCALLY UP TO ONE INCH OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY-POCONOS-CATSKILLS, WHILE CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND CHILLY.
A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS
DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND CHILLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 30S
ONCE AGAIN. IT WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY ON TUESDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT STILL SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. RIDGING MAY START TO
BUILD IN BY SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TROUGH
THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAVORING VFR EARLY ON.
CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR TO FUEL ALT
TERRITORY AS SHOWERS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. BORDERLINE FUEL ALT TO
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...ES
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