554
FXUS61 KBGM 090626
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
126 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A CURRENT LOOK AT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. THIS LEADS TO THE THINKING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ICE IS DECREASING AND THAT ANY SNOW WOULD TURN TO RAIN WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS CNY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS REALLY PICKING UP ON AN EXTENSIVE DRY SLOW NOW LASTING MOST
OF THE DAY. POPS WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT TILL ABOUT THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT THAT BULLISH ON STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE EVEN IF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WERE TO FORM. THANKS TO THE DRY SLOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A
RUN AT 60 FOR NE PA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH COOLER VALUES
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP SHARPLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING. STIFF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MONDAY FAIRLY STEADY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN CNY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LARGELY STAY IN THE 20'S AND 30'S. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING UP FOR TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
TRANSPORT 30 MPH OR SO WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY
A WINTER LIKE FEEL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODIFYING A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD IN BY SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
HANG AROUND THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT VARIED WITH
THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, BUT WHETHER
OR NOT IT IS RAINING, CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR/FUEL ALT.
THE LOW AND HEAVY RAIN MOVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ELM AND
BGM, WHERE FUEL ALT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANGES TO RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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