463
FXUS61 KBGM 091259
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
759 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A CURRENT LOOK AT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. THIS LEADS TO THE THINKING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ICE IS DECREASING AND THAT ANY SNOW WOULD TURN TO RAIN WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS CNY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS REALLY PICKING UP ON AN EXTENSIVE DRY SLOW NOW LASTING MOST
OF THE DAY. POPS WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT TILL ABOUT THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT THAT BULLISH ON STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE EVEN IF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WERE TO FORM. THANKS TO THE DRY SLOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A
RUN AT 60 FOR NE PA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH COOLER VALUES
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP SHARPLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING. STIFF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MONDAY FAIRLY STEADY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN CNY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LARGELY STAY IN THE 20'S AND 30'S. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING UP FOR TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
TRANSPORT 30 MPH OR SO WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY
A WINTER LIKE FEEL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODIFYING A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD IN BY SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH THE LOW CENTER APPROACHING THIS MORNING, THERE'S QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME TERMINALS VFR,
AND SOME DOWN TO IFR. THE LOW PASSES THROUGH, AND HEAVY RAIN
MOVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MVFR/FUEL ALT CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS THE
CENTER LOW PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL NY, WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AVP.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANGES TO RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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