168
FXUS61 KBGM 091814
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A CURRENT LOOK AT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING. THIS LEADS TO THE THINKING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
ICE IS DECREASING AND THAT ANY SNOW WOULD TURN TO RAIN WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS CNY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS REALLY PICKING UP ON AN EXTENSIVE DRY SLOW NOW LASTING MOST
OF THE DAY. POPS WERE LOWERED QUITE A BIT TILL ABOUT THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT THAT BULLISH ON STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE EVEN IF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WERE TO FORM. THANKS TO THE DRY SLOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE A
RUN AT 60 FOR NE PA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH COOLER VALUES
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP SHARPLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY MORNING. STIFF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES MONDAY FAIRLY STEADY AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN CNY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LARGELY STAY IN THE 20'S AND 30'S. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING UP FOR TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
TRANSPORT 30 MPH OR SO WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY
A WINTER LIKE FEEL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODIFYING A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS
TO BUILD IN BY SATURDAY WITH A SLOW CLEARING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A VERY MESSY AVIATION SETUP IS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
GENERALLY CEILING RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE MVFR TO
FUEL ALTERNATE. THAT BEING SAID, SOME TERMINALS (KELM AND KITH)
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY AT IFR CEILINGS AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT, BUT
IF THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS AROUND, THESE WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
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