603
FXUS61 KBGM 092031
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT ALLOWING RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REMAINING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES ADVECTS WARM SOUTH
EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SLIGHT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PUSHING A LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. AREAS NORTH WEST OF THIS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AS A RESULT,
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK,
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE DAY AND FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT COLD WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS ONONDAGA COUNTY AND 1 TO 3 FOR
SURROUNDING COUNTIES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. FOR
NORTHEAST PA CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE, THOUGH
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL NY, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
A TENTH OF A FEW TENTHS POTENTIALLY EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
NY. OVERALL FROM MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY, NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. WINTER STORM WATCH OR
ADVISORY MAY BE NEED BE NEEDED AT A FUTURE TIME. HELD BACK FROM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ONONDAGA COUNTY AS THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PRIMARY BAND.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS END UP JUST NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY ON TUESDAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW BAND GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFTS TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NY THROUGH WENDESDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AREA REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW LOCKED
IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURE.
PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE ON SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE ATTEMPTING
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, REGARDLESS CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DRY OUT ON
SATURDAY, AREA JUST REMAINS COLD. THE RIDGE ITSELF MOVES IN OVER
THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A VERY MESSY AVIATION SETUP IS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
GENERALLY CEILING RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE MVFR TO
FUEL ALTERNATE. THAT BEING SAID, SOME TERMINALS (KELM AND KITH)
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY AT IFR CEILINGS AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT, BUT
IF THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS AROUND, THESE WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS. THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES/MWG
NEAR TERM...ES/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES/MWG
LONG TERM...ES/MWG
AVIATION...BJG
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