071
FXUS61 KBGM 101123
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
623 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION LOOKS PRIMARILY TO BE OUT
OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON LAKE
ONTARIO ENOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN MADISON, ONEIDA AND
ONONDAGA COUNTIES DIRECTLY OFF THE LAKE. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
WITH CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AT
TIMES OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS LOOKS TO BE
THE FIRST MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATION OF THE YEAR.
GROUND TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SO UNLESS A HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWER IS OCCURRING DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES. WITH THIS IN MIND, RATIOS HAVE ALSO
BEEN LOWERED FROM OUR NBM DOWN TO THE 10-15:1 RANGE. ALSO
BLENDED IN THE TYPICALLY WELL RELIED ON CMC REGIONAL AS WELL FOR
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND QPF.
SOME MELTING OF SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS WELL SO THE
FORECASTED ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT REALIZED AT ONE PARTICULAR
TIME. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SLICK SPOTS TO FORM
AT NIGHT SO ISSUED AN ADVISORY WHERE THE MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED
(LOCALLY 4-7 INCHES) AND HIGHLIGHTED THE HWO FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE LAKE.
WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
MUCH STAYING IN THE 30'S BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH 20'S
EXPECTED FOR NIGHT. WINDS THOUGH LOOK TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY
ON TUESDAY WHERE INVERTED V MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP.
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 30 MPH OR SO GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE SNOW, A FEW SNOW SQUALLS MAY
BECOME REALIZED TUESDAY. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THE LACK
OF A SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPOFF BUT THE SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND
WIND ELEMENTS LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.
IT WILL STILL BE CLOUDY, COLD AND BLUSTERY IN NE PA WITH A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY END UP GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
SOME TIMING UNCERTAINITY THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY ENDS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOES INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WARMING INTO THE 40'S IN SPOTS AND CHANGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO RAIN. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BY SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL CHILLY WITH 30'S
AND 40'S GENERALLY FOR TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WHILE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES AND UNDER WEST-
NORTHEAST FLOW, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR OR MVFR/FUEL ALT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE DAY. BETTER DEVELOPED LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SYR AND RME LIKELY TO BE THE
ONES MOST IMPACTED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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