028
FXUS61 KBGM 102350
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO
AROUND FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C SO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.WITH MULTIPLE 500 MB VORT
MAXES ROTATING THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW, THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY BE TRANSIENT AND NOT RESIDE IN ONE
SPOT FOR TOO LONG. THIS WILL HELP SPREAD THE TOTALS OVER A
LARGER AREA BUT ALSO KEEP SNOW TOTALS TO UNDER 6 INCHES SO
ADVISORIES WERE KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE SNOW DENSITY, AS IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT WITH GOOD
LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT FAIRLY LOW
RATIOS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (14:1 TO 16:1) BUT THE WARM
GROUND AND POTENTIAL WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THANKS
TO HOW WARM LAKE ONTARIO STILL IS COULD RESULT IN THE RATIOS
BEING LOWER, CLOSER TO 10:1. FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTH,
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
DAY TIME HEATING LEADING TO A LITTLE BIT OF SURFACE INSTABILITY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN AT AN INCH OR LESS FOR SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TWIN TIERS, AND JUST SOME SNOW WITH
NO ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEPA.
A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL PROPAGATE
NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE FALLING FROM ROUGHLY 1004 MB TO THE MID 980S TOMORROW.
THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES FROM THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING. THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WERE
BUMPED UP TO THE NBM90TH PERCENTILE GIVEN THAT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS AT THE SURFACE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH 40 KNOT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL UNDER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE SO WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE BACK TO AROUND -3C TO -5C SO NOT QUITE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (BELOW ~1200 FEET),
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME DAY TIME HEATING. COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE KEEPS THE LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH VALLEY RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MIX.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ARE STARTING TO HAVE
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST WITH
A RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD IN AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
US. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT IN CNY INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RIDGE AND THE FACT
THAT LAKE EFFECT LINGERS LONGER THAN MODELED ON A REGULAR BASIS.
DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE BACK TO AVERAGE IF NOT A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE BRINGS IN MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN MVFR AND FUEL
ALT THOUGH SOME IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SYR,
RME, AND POSSIBLY BGM. AVP WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO SEE ANY SNOW
BUT COULD SEE CEILINGS STAYING AROUND MVFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY 14Z TUESDAY. AS THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIFTS NORTH SOME, ELM, BGM, AND ITH WILL SEE IMPROVEMENTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION OFF OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND AT LEAST MVFR
RESTRICTIONS OVER SYR AND RME.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE 7 TO 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KTS. A FEW GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MWG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL
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