908
FXUS61 KBGM 111126
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
626 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING, STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NW FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES FAR
INLAND DUE TO CONNECTING FETCH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS GEORGIAN
BAY. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 50 - 100 J/KG ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AND THIS STRONG LIFT IS THROUGH A DEEP SATURATED
DGZ. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, UP TO 10K FEET. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO, WITH A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH SNOW SHOWERS
FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF THE TWIN TIERS, HOWEVER, ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
FINALLY, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH-WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
PUSH ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL UNDER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE SO WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WILL TURN FLOW MORE WESTERLY AGAIN AND ENHANCE THE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO RISE BACK TO AROUND -3C TO -5C SO NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH
TO GET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (BELOW ~1200 FEET) DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE KEEPS THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING BACK TO SNOW OR A
MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
LIKELY JUST PLAIN RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING RIDGING STARTING BUILD IN
BRIEFLY THIS WEEKEND, AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN MVFR
AND FUEL ALT THOUGH SOME IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT SYR, RME, BUT CONDITIONS COULD TURN TO VFR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIFTS NORTH. ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR OR WORSE IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SQUALLS LIFT NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AVP, ELM, BGM, AND ITH WILL
SEE IMPROVEMENTS .
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AS WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
KTS. A FEW GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...BTL/MPK
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