205
FXUS61 KBGM 111823
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING, STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NW FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES FAR
INLAND DUE TO CONNECTING FETCH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS GEORGIAN
BAY. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING SOME
DECENT INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 50 - 100 J/KG ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AND THIS STRONG LIFT IS THROUGH A DEEP SATURATED
DGZ. EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, UP TO 10K FEET. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO, WITH A QUICK INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH SNOW SHOWERS
FURTHER NORTH AND OUT OF THE TWIN TIERS, HOWEVER, ALONG THE I90
CORRIDOR, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
FINALLY, FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH-WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
PUSH ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS NORTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WEST. GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL UNDER THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE SO WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY AND
THIS WILL TURN FLOW MORE WESTERLY AGAIN AND ENHANCE THE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO RISE BACK TO AROUND -3C TO -5C SO NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH
TO GET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (BELOW ~1200 FEET) DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE KEEPS THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING BACK TO SNOW OR A
MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
LIKELY JUST PLAIN RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING RIDGING STARTING BUILD IN
BRIEFLY THIS WEEKEND, AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND LIFT NORTH INTO THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY A MIX
OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS. OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AROUND
ITH, AVP AND POSSIBLY BGM, THERE CAN BE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF
HEAVIER SNOW THAT PRODUCE IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY BEFORE THE
LAKE EFFECT DISSIPATES. THE HIGH-RES MODELS DO SHOW A QUICK-
HITTING ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
MAINLY BETWEEN 07-11Z THAT CAN LEAD TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE CNY TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL EASE
A BIT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK
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