297
FXUS61 KBGM 120009
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
709 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE
PA. ANOTHER LOW MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN SNOW MIX BY THE AFTERNOON. A
GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD IN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS STARTED AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING FROM AROUND -13C THIS MORNING TO AROUND -8C PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS HAS HELPED REDUCE THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE
RIDGE THAT BUILDS IN TONIGHT IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER. WITH
FLOW GOING FROM NW THIS AFTERNOON TO SLIGHTLY SW LATER THIS
EVENING, REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT NORTH. THAT
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION QUICK, WITH SW
FLOW AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING HELPING GENERATE SOME LIFT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALMOST
REGION WIDE WITH THE WARM FRONTS PASSAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST
A FEW HOURS. COLD AIR IN PLACE KEEPS PTYPES AS SNOW THOUGH
GIVEN QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES, SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A TRACE WITH UP TO A HALF INCH AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN CNY.
WITH ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH NW FLOW RETURNING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WE HAVE BEEN UNDER BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. STILL WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND -5C TO -7C
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WENDESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE LAKE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THANKS TO HEATING FROM THE LAKES, SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN
WIND OF THE GREAT LAKES MAY WARM INTO THE MID 30S. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL AND THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY
MAY STILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THE SNOW TOTALS REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LATE THIS WEEK, WE GET STUCK ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AS NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING SLOWS ITS
EASTERLY PROGRESS. MOISTURE IS CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US SO DESPITE CLIPPER SYSTEMS
DESCENDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST,
NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
REGIONS. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS
LOOKING TO ALSO BE MOSTLY RAIN AS THE WARM LAKES AND NOT AS COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
STILL, SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY DO WELL ABOVE 2000 FEET OR SO
BUT BELOW 1200 FEET, MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN SATURDAY AS WELL AS A PUSH OF MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE 0 AND SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE TO HELP WARM
THINGS UP. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE, POTENTIALLY EVEN A
CLOSED LOW THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE SE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. FREEZING RAIN WAS INTRODUCED TO THE
CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING IN MAY LEAD TO SOME
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVER COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE BEING
PUSHED IN FROM THE EAST. LAKE EFFECT RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THIS LOW MOVES EAST WITH GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT OF COLDER AIR
MOVING BACK IN. THIS NEXT WAVE OF COLDER AIR DOES NOT LOOK AS
COLD AS THE CURRENT EVENT BUT STILL LIKELY COLD ENOUGH THAT THE
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW SO WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND LIFTING NORTH THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY A MIX OF
VFR AND ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
AREA...EXCEPT RME MAY SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RE-INTENSIFY SOME AS
THE BAND LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THAT TERMINAL. THIS CAN BRING TEMPO
MVFR/FUEL ALT CONDITIONS HERE.
THEN, THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW A QUICK-HITTING ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING MAINLY BETWEEN 05-10Z THAT CAN LEAD TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE CNY TERMINALS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS ANOTHER WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES THE AREA.
BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20
KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ009-018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...DK/MJM
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