754
FXUS61 KBGM 121846
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT WARMER
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY WITH A DUSTING TO A
HALF INCH OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE PA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
TODAY WITH NW FLOW RETURNING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT
MUCH ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTING IN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WE HAVE BEEN UNDER BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. T850
WILL STILL BE DOWN AROUND -4 TO -5C, SO SOME LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN FOR TONIGHT AS THE LAKE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
THANKS TO HEATING FROM THE LAKES, SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN
WIND OF THE GREAT LAKES MAY WARM INTO THE MID 30S, PRODUCING
RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL
AND THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY MAY STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLY A MIX ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. A
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, SO EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS
FALLING DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BRIEF RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME DRY CONDITIONS WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA, BUT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW RETURNS BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS NEXT WAVE OF COLDER AIR DOES
NOT LOOK AS COLD AS THE CURRENT EVENT, BUT STILL LIKELY COLD
ENOUGH THAT THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW AND MORE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, BECOMING MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WILL LEAD TO VARYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR WILL GENERALLY
BE IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z, BUT WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF IFR VISBY,
ESPECIALLY AROUND RME, SYR AND BGM. A MORE DEFINED BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 00Z WHICH
CAN LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND RME
AND POSSIBLY SYR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING DEPENDING ON EXACTLY
WHERE THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETS UP. AROUND THE REST OF THE
CNY TERMINALS, MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT AVP.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK
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