524
FXUS61 KBGM 130542
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1242 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MORE LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT FOR THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
RAIN MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
REMAINING IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER IN CANADA IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND WITH STILL SOME WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION, THERE IS ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO KEEP SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS/LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS GOING.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS THROUGH THE REGION, FLOW SWITCHES FROM SW
TO NW WITH LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO CNY. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COLD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND WITH
THE LAKE TEMPERATURES STILL WARM, SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AS WELL AS THE LAKE ONTARIO
PLAIN LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. WHILE SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1200 TO 1500 FEET MAY
SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FLOW IS CONDUCIVE TO A MULTI LAKE CONNECTION SO THE LAKE
EFFECT BAND COULD EXTEND THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW
IN THIS BAND TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
COLDER AIR MOVES IN AT 850 MB ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE HELPING TO DROP THE SNOW ELEVATION DOWN TO NEAR VALLEY
FLOORS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO BE WINDING DOWN AS A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DESCENDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SO
THE VALLEY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND LIKELY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WARMER AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN AND A LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LEADING TO SW FLOW
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS THE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA OCCLUDES. THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND HAS TRENDED WEAKER BUT SOME COLD AIR
DAMMING IS STILL POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY SO
FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS WERE KEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TUG
HILL BUT REMOVED FOR THE CATSKILLS. PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AHEAD OF THE LOW SO RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIAL RATHER THAN SHOWERY LIKE RECENT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONCE THE LOW IS THROUGH ON SUNDAY, LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW -7C LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SO PTYPES ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE SNOW.
BAND ORGANIZATION OR DURATION IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT BUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN RESIDING NEAR OUR REGION
WILL FINALLY PROPAGATE EAST WITH ZONAL FLOW IN THE LONG RANGE.
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW, SHORTWAVES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SO TIMING OF SYSTEMS IS UNCERTAIN. THERE
IS ALSO A GREAT AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES VARY GREATLY WITH THE INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. WITH SOME WESTERN
TROUGHING, THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THAT MAY HELP DEEPEN THE LOWS MORE IF HIGH PRESSURE CAN
MOVE FROM THE GULF TO EAST OF FLORIDA TO ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW.
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY, ENSEMBLE MEANS
ARE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY WITH MEMBERS BEING MUCH WARMER THAN
AVERAGE AND OTHERS WELL BELOW AVERAGE. DECIDED TO KEEP THE MEANS
IN UNTIL A CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL IMPACT SYR AND RME
WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT RME THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A MORE DEFINED BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO FORM WHICH CAN LEAD TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND RME AND POSSIBLY
SYR THE MORNING, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SETS UP.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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