880
FXUS61 KBGM 131825
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
125 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION FOR THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NY
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN MOVES BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS FLOW IS
CONDUCIVE TO A MULTI LAKE CONNECTION. THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY RAIN TODAY
AND LIMIT ANY SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLDER AIR MOVES
IN AT 850 MB LATER TONIGHT AND SOME ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FROM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME WET FLAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH VERY
LIGHT IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO
WIND DOWN TOMORROW MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AND A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS, HOWEVER, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND HAS TRENDED WEAKER, AND ANY COLD AIR
DAMMING LIKELY STAYS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS UNFOLDS WITH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
IF COLD AIR CAN HANG AROUND, THEN THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR A
LIGHT ICING OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE TUG HILL AND MOHAWK VALLEY
AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AHEAD OF
THE LOW SO RAINFALL WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND BENEFICIAL
RATHER THAN SHOWERY LIKE RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW -6C SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO ALL SNOW IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. BAND
ORGANIZATION OR DURATION IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AND THEN PUSH EAST OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK WOULD THEN TURN ZONAL, SO
SHORTWAVES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, MAKING ANY DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO A GREAT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES VARY
GREATLY WITH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. IF THE LOW TRACK NEXT WEEK IS
TO OUR WEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WE WOULD EXPECT WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
STILL A LOT TO SORT OUT AND BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL PAN OUT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STEADY STATE NWRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND
LIKELY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS (AND HIGHER TERRAIN RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT).
THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL VEER FROM ABOUT 295 DEG TO
310 LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION OF MOISTURE OFF GEORGIAN BAY AND DECREASE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AT MOST OR ALL AIRFIELDS WITH BRIEF IFR ACCOMPANYING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS.
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF
RME LATE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT, BRINGING A TREND
TOWARD MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THERE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS (20-30
PERCENT OF THE TIME) WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS IMPACT THE AIRFIELD.
SYR SHOULD ALSO SEE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MVFR/FUEL ALT
CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING.
THE NWRLY WIND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO ITH AND BGM
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR AND FUEL ALT
CONDITIONS LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVP AND ELM SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY .
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG/MPK
LONG TERM...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC/BCL
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