251
FXUS61 KBGM 132354
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST AIR FLOW WILL HELP TO CONTINUE LAKE-
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR MANY PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY COLDER WEATHER AND MORE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
2 PM UPDATE... A MOIST, CYCLONIC NW FLOW PATTERN IS CONTINUING
TO BRING MAINLY LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS INTO CNY/NEPA AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON. WE DON'T EXPECT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE
BACKGROUND PATTERN INTO FRIDAY, AND AS A RESULT, LAKE-EFFECT
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. AS THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COOL
OVERNIGHT, WE DO ANTICIPATE A RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION FOR AT LEAST
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT A COATING TO 2" OF
SNOW ON THE HILLTOPS BY EARLY FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST
TOMPKINS COUNTY DOWNWIND FROM CAYUGA LAKE, IN THE HILLS OF
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA, NORTHERN CORTLAND, AND MADISON COUNTIES, AND
ALSO PARTS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED, ALONG A SLOW TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SPORADIC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILD INTO
CNY AND NEPA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY, WE SHOULD SEE AN
END TO THE LAKE-EFFECT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE ABOVE NOTED SYSTEMS WILL BE
AN AREA OF WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT, ALONG WITH A SURFACE
FRONTAL COMPLEX (INITIAL WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE). THESE LATTER SYSTEMS WILL BRING LOWERING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
LATE DAY AND EVENING RAINFALL.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN
RECENT DAYS, REACHING THE 40S-LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
215 PM UPDATE... LOOKING AT THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN VIA OUR
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS, ANOTHER DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE SHOULD SET UP RESIDENCY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES (HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO). THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF FAIRLY COLD (BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID-NOVEMBER)
TEMPERATURES AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. EXACT LOW-LEVEL WIND
ORIENTATIONS WILL HELP DETERMINE WHICH SPECIFIC AREAS ARE MOST
AT RISK FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THESE DETAILS LIKELY
WON'T BE FULLY KNOWN UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND, SO STAY TUNED.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND
MODIFYING LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN THE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MACHINE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STEADY STATE NWRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND
LIKELY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS (AND HIGHER TERRAIN RAIN/SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNY TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT).
THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL VEER FROM ABOUT 295 DEG TO
315 LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP BREAK THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION OF MOISTURE OFF GEORGIAN BAY AND DECREASE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NOT BEFORE A ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTS OUR CNY TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AT MOST OR ALL AIRFIELDS WITH BRIEF IFR ACCOMPANYING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SHOW SHOWERS. AVP SHOULD REMAIN VFR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD.
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF
RME THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BRINGING A TREND TOWARD MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THERE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS (20-30 PERCENT OF
THE TIME) WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS IMPACT THE AIRFIELD; ESPECIALLY
BEFORE 06-10Z FRIDAY.
SYR SHOULD ALSO SEE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS
EVENING AND ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. SOME WET SNOW, OR SNOW PELLETS COULD MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN AT TIMES HERE.
THE NWRLY WIND SHOULD BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO ITH
AND BGM DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR AND FUEL ALT
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE
OCCASIONAL VFR BREAKS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
AVP AND ELM SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY IN
ANY SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT ELM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CTP
NEAR TERM...CTP
SHORT TERM...CTP
LONG TERM...CTP
AVIATION...CTP/MJM
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